Wednesday, March 5, 2008

MLB Odds - 2008 Tampa Bay Rays preview


Yes, hope springs eternal for every baseball team in spring training, but there actually is realistic hope this year for the Tampa Bay Rays.

After 10 years of futility, the Tampa Bay franchise shook things up - which it needed to after losing at least 90 games each season and finishing out of the AL East basement only once. But a new nickname (no more Devil), new logo, new colors and new personnel have things finally looking up. There are even plans for a new ballpark.

The big offseason move for Tampa Bay was the six-player deal that sent outfielder Delmon Young, infielder Brendan Harris and minor league outfielder Jason Pridie to the Twins in exchange for starter Matt Garza, shortstop Jason Bartlett and relief prospect Eduardo Morlan.

While Young was once the majors' top prospect, he had some notable attitude problems, and the team felt it was deep enough in position talent to make the deal, which was based around Garza being the No. 3 starter.

And Tampa Bay has the makings of a decent pitching staff, headed by Scott Kazmir, James Shields and Garza.

Kazmir and Shields each pitched more than 200 innings last year. There was a warning sign in the spring as Kazmir felt discomfort in his elbow, but the team insists it's nothing serious, even if the lefty doesn't pitch on Opening Day.

Before the All-Star break last year, Kazmir posted a 5-6 record with a 4.41 ERA, but in the second half went 8-3 with a 2.39 ERA and 124 strikeouts in 84 1/3 innings. He finished the season 13-9 with a 3.48 ERA and led the American League in strikeouts with 248.

Shields, meanwhile, went undefeated in his first 13 starts, making him only the 17th pitcher in the past 25 years to accomplish that feat. During that period, Shields exited all 13 games with either the lead or the game tied, but went just 6-0 with a 3.05 ERA, thanks in large part to the bullpen's struggles to protect the lead. He went 2-7 in his next 10 starts before finishing the season strong, going 4-1 with a 2.20 ERA in his final eight starts.

Garza entered the Twins' rotation in July last year and finished with a 3.69 ERA in 16 games."He's got a chance, certainly, to be atop-of-the-rotation pitcher," said Rays executive vice president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman of Garza. "He's a guy that we project to get a lot better pretty quickly."

Tampa Bay also signed veteran Troy Percival to help solve its bullpen problems, which were many last year. Percival (1.80 ERA, with 36 Ks in 40 innings last year in St. Louis) will close, while Al Reyes moves to a set-up role.

The Tampa Bay lineup is strong, as the Rays were a respectable eighth in the American League in scoring a year ago, thanks in large part to another strong year from Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton's emergence and a huge year from first-base find Carlos Pena.

Despite missing the final 12 games of the 2007 campaign due to a left groin strain, Crawford managed to win his fourth American League stolen base crown (tied with Brian Roberts of Baltimore at 50) while hitting a career-best .315 with 11 home runs and 80 RBIs.

Upton had 24 home runs and 82 RBIs to go along with a .300 average in 2007.

Who will man right field is up in the air, as the team hasn't been able to count on Rocco Baldelli for the past two-plus seasons. If he's able to play a full season for the Rays, he could be a 20 HR, 20 steals candidate.

"Rocco is the key," Rays manager Joe Maddon said. "Whatever Rocco can do kind of defines everything else that we want to do."

In the infield, Pena has to prove his 46 HR, 121-RBI season was no fluke, and the club has moved Akinori Iwamura to second base to make way for rookie phenom Evan Longoria at third, although Willy Aybar could begin the season there.

The lowdown: All bets are off if Kazmir isn't healthy, but the Rays could approach .500 this season if Percival can hold down the fort at the end of games.

Projected lineup
2B Akinori Iwamura
CF B.J. Upton
LF Carl Crawford
1B Carlos Pena
RF Rocco Baldelli
DH Cliff Floyd/Jonny Gomes
3B Evan Longoria
SS Jason Bartlett
C Dioner Navarro

Projected rotation
Scott Kazmir
James Shields
Matt Garza
Edwin Jackson
Andy Sonnanstine/J.P. Howell

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