Monday, March 24, 2008

March Madness odds: West Virginia vs. Xavier


2008 ncca tournament bracket
2008 ncca tournament schedule
NCAA tournament bracket


West Virginia (26-10) and Xavier (29-6) will meet Thursday night in Phoenix in the semifinals of the NCAA Tournament's West Regional, with the Mountaineers opening as slight betting favorites on WagerWeb.com.

The seventh-seeded Mountaineers got there by beating Duke, 73-67, Saturday afternoon in Washington, then sat in the stands and watched third-seeded Xavier rally twice to beat sixth-seeded Purdue, 85-78, in the next game.

WVU, behind junior Joe Alexander on offense, is peaking at the right time, winner of eight of its past 10 contests overall. Alexander leads the Mountaineers with 16.8 points and 6.3 rebounds per game. The 6-8
junior had a game-high 22 points and 11 rebounds in the win over Duke, a game in which WVU outrebounded the Blue Devils 47-20, including having 19 offensive boards.

Alexander has led the Mountaineers in scoring 18 times and the team is 14-4 in those games. Alexander has scored in double figures in 13 straight games.

But it was reserve Joe Mazzulla who was considered the MVP against Duke by most observers. He finished with 13 points, 11 rebounds and eight assists, the majority coming in the second half. Alex Ruoff chipped in 17 points and six rebounds.

"That kid was fabulous," said Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski of Mazzulla. "He looked like a mini-Jason Kidd out there, getting rebounds and assists and points."

Xavier, meanwhile, was the class of the Atlantic 10 all season and one of the top 16 teams in the country all season. So, Xavier should have earned a berth to the second weekend, although it took rallies against both Georgia and Purdue.The Musketeers will give WVU size problems, with with five players taller than 6-6, including two at 6-9. And they are so balanced this season (six players averaged between 9.8 and 11.9 points per game) that none made the All-Atlantic 10 team despite a 14-2 league record. But 6-foot-3 senior guard Stanley Burrell was the A-10 defensive player of the year and third team all-conference, 6-9 senior forward Josh Duncan was the sixth man of the year and second team all-league, while 5-7 point guard Drew Lavender was second team all-league.

The Musketeers are led by Duncan, who averages 11.7 points a game, and on the boards by Derrick Brown, who averages 6.6 rebounds a game.

Lavender will keep West Virginia off balance by taking the 3 when it's there and driving and dishing when it's not. The Mountaineers can forget about trying to force the ball out of Lavender's hands; the 5-7 senior is too quick and crafty to be schemed against.

WVU's Jamie Smalligan is a 7-footer, but he's not much of a factor. Alexander is a nasty rebounder and a good 6-foot-8 scorer, but he's about it as far as real height in the rotation. Everyone hits the boards and
everyone battles on both ends, but WVU will be in trouble against a team with some bulk and power inside. Will that be Xavier? On the plus side, WVU doesn't turn the ball over much, averaging only 11 per game.

Bob Huggins, the Mountaineers' first-year head coach was 8-8 against the cross-town Musketeers during his 16 years at the University of Cincinnati. He also lost to Xavier while at Kansas State.

"Well, I know who the coach is," Xavier coach Sean Miller said; Miller is 1-1 against Huggins.

"They're a great team with one of the best players in the country in Joe Alexander," Xavier's Lavender said "They've got one of the best coaches in Bob Huggins. But it's not Xavier against Bob Huggins. It's Xavier versus West Virginia."

Prediction: Recent trends suggest betting the over at WagerWeb.com; the over is 7-2 in WVU's last 9 overall games and is 7-2 in Xavier's last 9 neutral site games. I also say take WVU and give the points.

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