Monday, March 24, 2008

March Madness odds: Indiana vs. Arkansas


2008 ncca tournament bracket
2008 ncca tournament schedule
NCAA tournament bracket


On Friday night, we really find out how much the whole Kelvin Sampson saga has affected the Indiana Hoosiers.

The East Region's No. 8 seed faces No. 9 Arkansas (22-11) in Raleigh, N.C., with the winner getting the unenviable task of then facing North Carolina.

First things first: IU (25-7) has to turn around a late season slide that can be traced to Sampson's firing on Feb. 22.

The Hoosiers, a Top 15 team for most of the season, were blown out by 29 at Michigan State soon afterward and also lost to Penn State and Minnesota. IU barely beat Big Ten cellar dweller Northwestern in the Big Ten tournament opener before falling to the Gophers. For comparison's sake, in Sampson's last two games, the Hoosiers blasted Michigan State and beat Purdue.

Still, don't think the Arkansas players or coaches are expecting anything but the Hoosiers' best.

"That's an incredible first-round draw," center Steven Hill said, shaking his head. "Indiana has been in the Top 25 all year. They are a storied, storied program. It's a huge test for us."

Arkansas, meanwhile, has won four of six and advanced to the SEC Tournament championship game under first-year coach John Pelphrey - denying Tennessee a No. 1 seed along the way with a 92-91 upset in the semifinals.

But Arkansas' 22 victories and 31 RPI were good enough for an at-large bid and their third consecutive trip to the NCAA Tournament. They are one of six SEC teams to make it.

"We feel good about our opportunity against Arkansas," said Indiana senior forward D.J. White. "They finished second in the west of the SEC, so we feel it will be a good matchup."The Hogs are led by senior guard/forward Sonny Weems. His 14.3 points per game are a team best, and Weems hits 37 percent behind the 3-point line.

However, he hurt his knee at practice this week, but Pelphrey says he doesn't "anticipate that keeping him out."

Senior forward Darian Townes (11.8 ppg.) and senior center Steven Hill (69 blocked shots) are Arkansas' power in the middle, while sophomore Patrick Beverley is second on the team in points (12.4 ppg) and first in rebounds (6.8 rpg).

Indiana is the highest-scoring team in the Big Ten, at 75.1 points per game, and is the second-best shooting team in their league, hitting 46.3 percent of their shots, and the best free-throw shooting club (.763). The Razorbacks averaged 73.6 points per game, which would have ranked second in the Big Ten behind IU.

Indiana's White, the Big Ten Player of the Year, was the only player in the conference to average 10 or more points and rebounds, with 17.3 points and 10.4 rebounds per game.

Freshman guard Eric Gordon can be unstoppable off the dribble, and White, a double-double machine, has overmatched most everybody he's faced inside. If they get one-on-one matchups, Indiana's in good shape, but if they don't, Gordon and fellow freshman Jordan Crawford can resort to free-lancing and ill-advised 3s, which is the main reason the Hoosiers had more turnovers (439) than assists (422) this season.

The Razorbacks up only 66 points per game in the high-scoring SEC and held opponents to 41.3 percent shooting, will try to hold White in check with a parade of big bodies inside. They outrebounded Tennessee 32-21 in the SEC tourney semifinals, and they'll look to win the rebounding battle against Indiana as well.

One part of history is on the Hogs' side. The No. 9 seed in the tournament holds a 50-42 edge over the No. 8 seed since the field expanded to 64 teams 23 years ago.

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