Sunday, March 9, 2008

March Madness Odds: Stanford at UCLA


Thursday night's Pac-10 clash between No. 7 Stanford (24-4, 13-3) and No. 3 UCLA (26-3, 14-2) has plenty riding on it, and one could argue it's Stanford's most important game in years.

A victory by the Bruins would earn them the Pac-10 title outright for the third consecutive season and bolster their case for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. That would keep the Bruins in the West Region, giving them early round games in Anaheim, with the next two in Phoenix, if they advanced.

The regular-season title is on the line, but only for Stanford. The Cardinal must win to claim at least a share of it. But as long as the Bruins beat Cal on Saturday, they'll be co-champs.

As for the No. 1 seed in the Pac-10 tournament, Stanford wins the tiebreaker with UCLA if USC finishes ahead of Arizona State. UCLA wins the tiebreaker if ASU finishes ahead of the Trojans.

A Stanford win also could maybe earn it that NCAA No. 1 seeding itself, leaving UCLA headed to Charlotte or Detroit or Houston.

"My primary goal is for us to win the Pac-10 and to win it outright,' UCLA coach Ben Howland said. "The seedings we have no control over. Obviously, we'd like to stay out West.'

In addition to the two best teams in the West facing off, tonight's game also will showcase the conference's leading candidates for player of the year, UCLA freshman Kevin Love and Stanford sophomore Brook Lopez.

The first time they met - in UCLA's 76-67 victory Jan. 3 - Lopez and Love played to a virtual draw, with Love collecting 15 points and seven rebounds and Lopez getting 13 and eight. More significantly, Lopez and his brother Robin both fouled out while Love did not pick up a single foul.Back then, Brook Lopez had been in action for lessthan two weeks after missing Stanford's first nine games while academically ineligible. Now he's the Pac-10's fourth-leading scorer with 19.3 points, his 7.8 rebounds per game tie him for sixth in the
conference, and he is second in the league in blocked shots a game at 2.31.

However, UCLA star guard Darren Collison wasn't his usual self in that first Stanford game either, overcoming a sprained left knee that had required wearing a brace. But he's in high gear now, averaging 16 points in his past four games.

"We need to come out pumped up," said Love, who is averaging 17.3 points and 11.1 rebounds and fourth in the Pac-10 in field-goal percentage. "We know Thursday is going to be a very, very, very, VERY tough game against the Lopez twins and Stanford. This
game means a lot more than just winning the Pac-10."

Since Jan. 14, the Cardinal are 11-1, with the only loss coming at Arizona State when Stanford blew a 14-point lead with 7:59 left and fell 72-68 in overtime on Feb. 14.

The Bruins have won 16 of 18 at home but haven't been great at covering - they are only 9-7 against the spread at Pauley Pavilion. UCLA is an 8.5-point favorite tonight on WagerWeb.com (that seems high).

A winner of eight of 11 on the road, Stanford also has been good against the number away from Maples Pavilion. The Cardinal have covered the spread in four of their last five road games.

No comments: