Of the four No. 1 seeds in action during the Sweet 16, Memphis would seem to have the biggest chance to be upset even though the Tigers are 4.5-point betting favorites (o/u: 136.5) against No. 5 seed Michigan State on WagerWeb.com.
Spartans coach Tom Izzo always has his team playing well in the tournament as he goes for his fourth Final Four berth. Izzo preaches defense, and his team has responded.
Pitt shot just 32.7 percent against the Spartans, while Temple shot 37.5 percent.
Memphis coach John Calipari said part of Izzo's success in March is the style of play.
"They're always really, really good defensively,' Calipari said. "They're always one of the best rebounding teams in the country. They play you around the basket. You're not getting any easy baskets. They really body up as well as anybody else. They play a grind-it-out game offensively, and they're used to every possession matters for them because you're not going to have a lot.
'However, while most experts say Michigan State needs to play a slowdown game to upset Memphis, Izzo begs to differ.
"I do see this as an up-and-down game," he said. "I hope it is an up-and-down game because I think we have enough depth and we can run, and they are going to run."
With All-American freshman guard Derrick Rose running the show, Memphis is averaging just fewer than 80 points per game compared to MSU's 71, so Izzo does not necessarily want to see the game get into the 90s."What I hope we do is somewhat stop some of their fast break, or, contain it would be a better word because I don't think you're going to stop it," Izzo said.
Michigan State will need a big effort from its backcourt on Friday. Senior Drew Neitzel scored 21 points, hitting 5 of 8 from 3-point range, against Pittsburgh, while freshman Kalin Lucas got into the lane at will and scored 19 points.
Neitzel is capable of carrying the Spartans. But, he has scored six or fewer points five times since February started -- Michigan State is 1-4 in those games.
Memphis' biggest advantage is its depth of quick perimeter defenders -- six guards average at least 14 minutes per game -- so look for the Tigers to be aggressive, try to create turnovers and get a few easy fastbreak baskets early.
Memphis wins a track meet -- it has scored fewer than 72 just once in nine games; the Spartans have scored more than 72 just once in nine games.
Meanwhile, Memphis' main Achilles' heel, free-throw shooting, figures to catch up to it sooner or later. After shooting poorly throughout the season, the Tigers made only 15 of 32 free throws and sank only five of 12 over the final 48 seconds in a close win against Mississippi State in Round 2. The Tigers haven't seemed worried about their free-throw shooting all season and didn't change their tune after the Mississippi State game.
Calipari even joked: "What I'm taking great pride in, we won it with a free throw - Chris's free throw (with three seconds left). So all that stuff about our free-throw shooting now goes out the window, I guess."
Rebounding has been an asset for the Tigers throughout the season and it proved so against Mississippi State. The Tigers outrebounded the Bulldogs 45-37, grabbed 19 offensive rebounds and scored 22 second-chance points. Joey Dorsey, Memphis' top inside presence, had 12 rebounds to lead the way.
"Our goal was 15. I said if we can get 15 offensive rebounds, we'll win the game," Calipari said.
Against the spread: Michigan St. 15-14-2, Memphis 15-19-2.
Over/under records: MSU 16-15, Memphis 19-17.
Prediction: No one seems to respect Memphis, and, yes, the free throws will be their downfall in the end. Just not Friday. The Tigers cover.
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