Tuesday, March 25, 2008

March Madness odds: Western Kentucky vs. UCLA


2008 ncca tournament bracket
2008 ncca tournament schedule
NCAA tournament bracket



The UCLA Bruins (33-3) are the biggest betting favorites in the Sweet 16, listed at a 12.5-point advantage on WagerWeb.com over No. 12 seed Western Kentucky (29-6) for Thursday night's West Regional semifinal in Phoenix.

Still, not all is well in Westwood, as two Bruins starters are at less than full strength: Luc Richard Mbah a Moute will undergo an MRI on his sprained left ankle and Josh Shipp is recovering from strep throat.

Coach Ben Howland said the MRI on Mbah a Moute was a precaution.

"His ankle was swollen pretty severely (Monday)," Howland said. "I was surprised and a little bit down by it. We don't anticipate there being any issue."

Mbah a Moute returned Saturday against Texas A&M after missing two games. He had two points, eight rebounds, six turnovers and four fouls in the Bruins' 51-49, second-round victory.

Shipp clearly also was feeling the effects in Saturday's win over Texas A&M, as he went scoreless.

The Bruins will need to be at full strength Thursday. The Sun Belt Conference champion Hilltoppers will be bringing a quick pace.

"They're a pressing team that runs and jumps all the time," Howland said. "They double team the ball in the backcourt early. Once you cross half court they double on ball screens. They're primarily a pressure man-to-man defense. They make every pass hard to complete, force you into turnovers, try to speed you up into making bad decisions."

The Hilltoppers will attempt to do whatever is needed to make UCLA point guard Darren Collison give up the ball, using half-court and full-court traps and lots and lots of ball pressure.

WKU guards Courtney Lee and Tyrone Brazelton have earned Howland's notice.

"Lee is an NBA player with an NBA body," Howland said. "Brazelton is very, very quick, quick as anybody we've seen all year."Lee is a 6-foot-5, 200-pound senior who averages 20.5 points a game and is the team's go-to-player. He typifies the profile of the mid-major player: a guy who was passed over by big-name programs out of high school but has become a superb inside-outside threat, a capable defender -- and a potential pro. He is shooting 40.4 percent from 3-point range in the tournament.

Brazelton is a 6-foot, 180-pound senior who scored 33 points in Western Kentucky's first-round upset of Drake and contributed 15 points, including a critical three-pointer, and five assists in Sunday's victory over San Diego.

If there's any team from the Pacific 10 Conference that Western Kentucky resembles, Howland said, it is Washington. And the Huskies gave UCLA one of its losses this season.

UCLA will have a huge size advantage inside, mainly due to Kevin Love, the difference-making, 6-foot-10, 265-pound freshman center who happens to be the Pacific-10 Conference Player of the Year.

Love took on Texas A&M's revolving door of huge, physical front-court players and came away with 19 points, 11 rebounds and seven blocked shots.

The Hilltoppers have 6-foot-9, 190-pound sophomore Jeremy Evans and 6-9, 260-pound D.J Magley to guard Love. The lack of a true inside presence makes it more imperative the Hilltoppers force a fast-paced game with plenty of 3-point shooting.

Western Kentucky is 18th in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage (39.4) and ranks 31st in scoring (77.3 points per game).

The Hilltoppers are returning to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1993. The Bruins are back for the third year in a row and 31st overall.

Prediction: Bruins have way too much. WKU's run ends decisively. Best bet might be the under of 133.

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