Friday, November 30, 2007

NFL Odds - Packers vs. Cowboys at the Texas Stadium


For as much hype as the New England-Dallas game got earlier this season, Thursday night's Packers-Cowboys game - with Dallas -7 (51.5) on WagerWeb.com - is more important in the grand scheme of things.

Because while the Pats and Cowboys were both unbeaten at the time of their meeting, they are in separate conferences.

Thursday's matchup of 10-1 teams probably will be the deciding factor in which team gets home-field advantage through the NFC playoffs. And don't you think the Packers would prefer the NFC Championship Game be played in frigid Lambeau instead of Texas Stadium?

This will be the first time two teams with records of 10-1 or better will face off since the 10-1 New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers played on Dec. 3, 1990, and just the eighth time in NFL history. The team that wins will clinch a playoff berth.

First off, let's start with the notable injuries.

Dallas better shape than Green Bay in this category.

Receiver Patrick Crayton, who missed last week's game due to a sprained ankle, is expected to play. Crayton has 33 receptions for 482 yards, close to his career highs of 36 and 516, respectively, set last season.

Green Bay's situation isn't as clear. Two of the Packers' top defensive players, cornerback Charles Woodson and defensive end Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, are officially listed as questionable and will be game-time decisions.

Woodson (toe) and Gbaja-Biamila (ankle) both were injured during last week's Thanksgiving Day victory at Detroit.

Woodson took part in the jog-through portion of practice Tuesday, while Gbaja-Biamila was limited to what Packers coach Mike McCarthy called "a rehab workout," which included change-of-direction drills using cones.

Gbaja-Biamila, tied for fourth in the NFL with 9 1⁄2 sacks, said he is playing if he has any say.

"It's a coach's call, but I feel good. I'm ready to play," said Gbaja-Biamila, whose right leg was bent under him in an ugly collision with Lions lineman Blaine Saipaia. "I think that when I'm out there, I'm going to be ready to go 100 percent. ... It's a big game, and I want to be in it."Woodson, meanwhile, is a bit more iffy, and he will be needed against the high-powered Dallas passing attack.

"He's pretty much around-the-clock in the training room," McCarthy said. "He's going to be a game-time decision. He's improving. He's dealt with this injury before. He's making progress."

If Woodson can't go, No. 3 corner Jarrett Bush would move into the starting lineup, as he did last week, while either No. 4 corner Frank Walker or No. 5 corner Tramon Williams would play in the nickel defense.

If Gbaja-Biamila can't play, Jason Hunter would replace him in the pass-rush package.

"This goes on week in and week out," McCarthy said of the injuries. "Our guys will be ready to play. We have a plan. Our coaches have to put our players in the best position to be successful."

Green Bay will have safety Nick Collins, who practiced for the third consecutive day Tuesday and will start, according to McCarthy. Collins hasn't played since suffering a left knee injury Nov. 4 at Kansas City.

Cornerback Al Harris likely will get the call in defending Cowboys star WR Terrell Owens, but Bush struggled against the Lions when Woodson went out.

You can't have a preview of this big game without mentioning the quarterbacks.

Green Bay's Brett Favre has thrown only eight interceptions, completed passes at a career-high 68.5 percent clip and is on target for his fifth 4,000-yard season.

Dallas' Tony Romo, who idolized Favre growing up, enters this game already tied for the single-season team record for touchdown passes with 29, established by Danny White in 1983. He also seems a near-lock to better White's single-season club record of 3,980 passing yards set that season (Romo has 3,043).

There could be cause for concern regarding Green Bay's run defense, which has been one of the better ones in the league but that has allowed 265 combined yards to the Panthers and Lions in the past two games.

Meanwhile, Dallas had one of its best running games of the season on Thanksgiving against the Jets, as Julius Jones and Marion Barber combined for 167 yards on 32 carries.

The lowdown: Much of the U.S. may not be able to watch tonight's game as it is being televised by the NFL Network, which is not carried - barring a last-second change - on many cable companies, including the two main ones, Comcast and Time Warner. ... Favre is 0-8 lifetime and 0-5 in the regular season at Texas Stadium. ... The Packers have won seven consecutive road games, one shy of the franchise record last accomplished in the 1966 and 1967 seasons. ... The Cowboys have won five straight games and the Packers have won six straight this season and 14 of their last 15 dating back to last season. ... Dallas is clearly the more well-rounded team. Can Favre win this game by himself? Sure. But expect a Dallas victory and cover ... although it may be worth buying down to 6.5 on WagerWeb.com.

Betting trends

The Packers are 9-1 ATS.
The Packers are 5-0 ATS away.
The Packers are 4-0 ATS as the underdog.
The Packers are 2-0 ATS as an away underdog.
The Cowboys are 8-3 ATS.
The Cowboys are 4-2 ATS at home.
The Cowboys are 7-2 ATS as the favorite.
The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS as a home favorite.

More NFL Trends

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