Monday, November 19, 2007

NFL Betting: New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills


Two of the hottest teams in the NFL will take the field Sunday night in Buffalo when unbeaten New England (9-0) comes to town against the 5-4 Bills, with the Patriots a -15.5 betting favorite on WagerWeb.com.

Yes, by the way, I said TWO of the league's hottest teams. Yeah, yeah, we all know about the Pats, how they are on pace to score 631 points (the league record is 556), how QB Tom Brady is on a clip to throw 58 touchdown passes (record is 49), and how receiver Randy Moss is on pace to catch 21 touchdowns (record is 22).

The Patriots lead the league in total yards (3,858), points (355), touchdowns (46), touchdowns passing (33) and first downs (234). To put that into perspective, Buffalo produced 33 touchdowns, 300 points and 234 first downs all of last season.

"I would say it's probably the most potent offense I've ever coached against," Bills defensive coordinator Perry Fewell said. "You probably have to get the Boston Celtics to score points with them."

However, the Bills are on an unlikely four-game winning streak, mainly because of a defense that has allowed only an average of 12 points per game in that stretch.

"We have a great opportunity to show the world we mean business, that the Buffalo Bills are somebody to be taken seriously," defensive end Chris Kelsay said. "We don't do it with a lot of fireworks, but if we won the game on Sunday, a lot of eyes will be opened and people would see us as a force to be reckoned with."

Bills coach Dick Jauron said his team would have to score a minimum of 28 points - something it has done only once this season - to have a chance at winning. Buffalo will be aiming for its first five-game win streak since the franchise posted six straight victories from Nov. 21-Dec. 26, 2004.However, Buffalo will be without rookie running back Marshawn Lynch, who has six touchdowns and is second in the NFL with 196 carries. He sprained his ankle last week against Miami and could be out for several weeks. (NFL injury report)

Buffalo ranks 31st in the NFL in total yards (268.3 ypg) and has thrown a league-low four touchdown passes, and one of those was by Lynch. The replacement options for Lynch are veteran Anthony Thomas (12 rushing yards) and rookie Dwayne Wright (76 rushing yards).

Meanwhile, Buffalo QB J.P. Losman, who has won two straight starts since returning from a sprained knee and regaining his starting job, was injured early in the teams' first meeting this year, a 38-7 New England blowout.

Bills quarterbacks have just three touchdowns passes this year, while Brady has 11 times that number.

So, while the Bills are 5-1 since that loss to the Pats, they have had trouble getting to the quarterback, a big reason why the team gives up over 240 passing yards per game. The Bills have just nine sacks as a team. That's not good against Brady, needless to say.

The lowdown: This game was moved to NBC's prime-time Sunday slot from its original 1 p.m. start. . New England leads the league with a plus-11 turnover ratio. Brady is 12-1 in his career against the Bills. . Buffalo's five victories have come against teams with a combined record of 9-36, while its four losses were against teams that are a combined 28-8. . The Bills are 0-8 against New England since their 31-0 home victory to open 2003, including 0-3 in home games, and that number will be 0-9 by around midnight on Sunday.

New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills Betting trends
The Patriots are 8-1 ATS.
The Patriots are 4-1 ATS away.
The Patriots are 8-1 ATS as the favorite.
The Patriots are 4-1 ATS as an away favorite.
The Bills are 7-2 ATS.
The Bills are 5-0 ATS at home.
The Bills are 5-2 ATS as the underdog.
The Bills are 4-0 ATS as a home underdog.

More NFL Trends

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