Monday, November 12, 2007

NFL Odds - Chicago Bears at Oakland Raiders


If the Chicago Bears have any hope of reaching the playoffs a year removed from winning the NFC, they must win today in Oakland. WagerWeb.com favors the Bears to beat the Raiders by 3.5 points.

Chicago is 3-5 and pretty much out of the NFC North race, what with the Packers at 7-1. A wild card is a long shot, but it must begin today.

"We obviously have to make a great run here," linebacker Hunter Hillenmeyer said. "We're looking at an 8-0 or 7-1 finish to try to get into the playoffs, and that's something where you need to come back ready to go, ready for a run."

It's always easy to blame the Chicago offense. Brian Griese hasn't been much better than Rex Grossman (in fact, Grossman took a lot more snaps this week in practice and could relieve Griese today if he struggles), and the running game behind Cedric Benson has been awful.

Chicago ranks an abysmal 31st in the NFL in rushing, averaging only 78.9 yards per game. A lot of that is on Benson, who has rushed for 466 yards on 149 carries for a 3.1 average.

The good news? Oakland is 30th in the league against the run, allowing an average of 152.5 yards per contest.

Chicago's defense has been hit hard by injuries and is near the bottom of the league. Last year, the Bears lead the NFL in turnover ratio; this year, they are minus-10. The St. Louis Rams

"I don't think we've kind of let down or anything," Bears LB Brian Urlacher said. "We just haven't played as well; that's all there is to it. We're not satisfied with getting there and not winning. We just haven't played well. I have no excuse for it, except we haven't done our jobs."Meanwhile, Oakland again starts Josh McCown at QB. He was a terrible 13 for 27 with three interceptions against one touchdown for 158 yards in a loss last week, and it's just a matter of time before No. 1 overall pick JaMarcus Russell finally gets his shot (he has moved up to No. 2 on the depth chart).

Oakland may have found a running back in Justin Fargas, who has taken the starting job from LaMont Jordan. Fargas rushed for 104 yards last week and is averaging 5.4 yards per carry.

OK, that's all fine and good. But the best reason to watch today's game, if you must, is that the Raiders say they will kick to return star Devin Hester of the Bears.

In only his second season, Hester has returned nine kickoffs and punts for touchdowns, and he leads the Bears in touchdowns this season. Hester's nine regular-season special-teams returns for touchdowns are tied for fourth all-time, behind only Brian Mitchell's 13 and Dante Hall's and Eric Metcalf's 12.

"We're excited about the challenge," Raiders coach Lane Kiffin said. "It's no fun to kick it out of bounds, so we're going to see how well we can cover."

This will be the only time I give you special teams stats, but the Raiders' Sebastian Janikowski leads the league with 18 touchbacks, and Shane Lechler's 50.3-yard gross average and 43.9-yard net average top all punters.

"It is going to be a tremendous test for us this week, with maybe the best returner ever to play the game," Kiffin said. "So, we're going to have to be on it. I really like the timing of it. I like the fact that we've been playing really well and now here we go with our best test right here. So we can see how far we've come along."

The lowdown: This is the 12th meeting between the Raiders and Bears; Raiders lead series, 6-5. The teams have met just once in the past seven years, with the Bears winning 24-21 at Soldier Field in 2003. The last meeting in Oakland was in 1999, a 24-17 Raiders victory. Oakland lost for the seventh time in its last eight home contests. . I expect a Bears victory and cover here with, yes, a Hester return being the difference.
(minus-13) are the only team with a worse ratio.

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