Monday, November 19, 2007

NFL Football Betting - Chiefs vs. Colts


A few weeks ago, Kansas City's visit to Indianapolis looked like a sure win for the cruising Colts, but two weeks have changed things immensely.

Now, the defending Super Bowl champs look to avoid losing three straight games for the first time in more than five years - and not relinquish sole possession of first in the AFC South. Indianapolis is a 14.5-point favorite on WagerWeb.com to dispose of Kansas City (4-5), but injuries could again play a big role for the Colts (7-2).

On the good side, tight end Dallas Clark has been cleared to play despite a concussion and linebacker Freddie Keiaho also should return from a concussion.

However, there is a laundry list of Colts likely to miss the game: left tackle Tony Ugoh (stinger), wide receiver Marvin Harrison (knee), wide receiver Anthony Gonzalez (thumb), cornerback Dante Hughes (shoulder), cornerback Matt Giordano (hamstring), tackle Daniel Federkeil (concussion), linebacker Tyjuan Hagler (neck) and cornerback Tim Jennings (upper leg).

Safety Bob Sanders practiced Friday and is probable.

We've had defensive linemen practicing on offense; the same guys running [pass] routes for both sides, Colts coach Tony Dungy said. That's where you have to be careful that it doesn't wear your team down.

And all this doesn't include Indy's loss of star defensive end Dwight Freeney for the year, which happened this week.

Of course, the Colts still have Peyton Manning, but he looked very human with a decimated offense last week, throwing a career-high six interceptions in a loss to the Chargers. However, in four career regular season games against Kansas City, Manning has thrown for 1,236 yards, nine TDs and three interceptions.The Chiefs are also trying to avoid a third straight loss Sunday, and they will do it with Brodie Croyle at QB. Coach Herm Edwards made the switch this week from Damon Huard as the Chiefs have the 30th-ranked overall offense (286.0 ypg) in the league.

'He's a guy we drafted, a guy we said at the end of the day we need to find out if he can play quarterback,' Edwards said. 'Well, now it's his turn. We're going to find out the next seven weeks.'

Croyle is 27-of-47 for 300 yards, one touchdown and one INT in three games this season, and he will be going against an Indy pass defense that ranks second in NFL, allowing 164.6 yards per game.

I'm anxious, Croyle said. I'm ready to get in there and this is obviously something that I've been working for since I was a young kid. It's finally here, but starting is not my ultimate goal and we have a long way to go to reach that.

Croyle will be missing a key cog in the backfield.

Larry Johnson will miss another game and possibly more) with a foot sprain. Priest Holmes will start again for K.C. Last week, Holmes, a three-time Pro Bowler, rushed for 65 yards on 20 carries in his first start in more than two years, but the Chiefs have the second-worst rushing offense in the league at 78.1
yards per game.

The lowdown: The Colts hold a 8-7 lead in their all-time regular season series with Kansas City, and had won five in a row prior to a 45-35 home win for the Chiefs in Week 8 of the 2004 campaign. K.C. is 0-2 in Indianapolis all-time. . Colts RB Joseph Addai, second in AFC with 760 yards rushing, has three consecutive 100-yard rushing games at home (118, 136, 112). . The Chiefs are not only 30th in the NFL in offense, they are 30th in scoring (15.0 points per game), and 31st in rushing (78.1 yards per game). Hard to ignore those numbers, but it's also hard to ignore all those injured Colts. Indy wins at home, but Kansas City covers.

Betting trends

The Chiefs are 4-4 ATS.

The Chiefs are 3-1 ATS away.

The Chiefs are 4-2 ATS as the underdog.

The Chiefs are 3-0 ATS as an away underdog.

The Colts are 6-3 ATS.

The Colts are 4-0 ATS at home.

The Colts are 5-3 ATS as the favorite.

The Colts are 3-0 ATS as a home favorite.


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