There is somewhat of a lack of drama in the NFL heading into Week 16, with only one division - the AFC North - up for grabs. But seeding among the division winners is very much in play this week. Otherwise, not a lot of great matchups. Make sure to check the weather reports on a lot of these games, as it affected many last week.
Pittsburgh (-7.5 WagerWeb.com line) at St. Louis, Thursday: The Steelers have been gashed in their past two games but certainly have more motivation than the Rams, who have lost double-digit starters to injury on the season. St. Louis will keep it close for a half.
The pick: Steelers.
Dallas (-10.5) at Carolina, Saturday: Tony Romo is expected to play, and Dallas needs to win to keep the pressure on Green Bay. Obviously the key to betting on this game is to try and find out how limited Romo might be. He probably would not play if the game didn't mean something. The pick: Panthers to cover.
Green Bay (-9) at Chicago: The Bears offense was awful on Monday night against Minnesota, and Chicago handed Green Bay one of its two losses. And the Packers need to win to hope for the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Still, 9 points for a road team in Chicago? The pick: Bears to cover.
Cleveland (-3) at Cincinnati: You almost have to throw out the records in intra-state rivalry games (remember their last shootout?). There's no reason to pick the Bengals ... but this game worries me. The pick: Buy up to 3.5 and Cincy to cover.
Houston (+7) at Indianapolis: This game is also tricky. Indy has nothing at all to play for, but Tony Dungy says he won't rest his starters. I don't believe him. Houston is playing well suddenly. The pick: Buy up to 7.5 and Texans to cover.
Kansas City (+4.5) at Detroit: The two teams who have gone in the tank the most this season. Still, the Lions generally can put up points at home, while the Chiefs really have no offense. I actually like this game a lot for Detroit. The pick: Lions.
Miami (+22) at New England: Only 22? A few weeks ago, many speculated this line would be 30, and it's almost too bad an 0-14 team isn't facing a 14-0 team. New England has nothing to play for, but I'm guessing Bill Belichick wants Tom Brady to get the TD record, this week if possible. That means he would need to throw five. The pick: Patriots.
NY Giants (-3) at Buffalo: Giants fans have to be panicking that another late-season swoon is coming after watching Monday night's debacle. New York lost Jeremy Shockey for the season, and Eli Manning was awful. Buffalo can only play spoiler at this point.
The pick: Giants.Oakland (+13) at Jacksonville: The Jags are the hottest team in the league other than New England. And Oakland will be without starting RB Justin Fargas, and you can expect rookie QB JaMarcus Russell to get plenty of playing time this week - which is all bad news for an Oakland offense. I think Fred Taylor, motivated by his Pro Bowl snub, goes off here.
The pick: Jaguars.
Philadelphia (+3) at New Orleans: I love this line. Philly is officially out of the playoff race, while New Orleans is in the middle of the wild-card fight. Reggie Bush might even return this week for New Orleans. Buy this down to 2.5 and bet a bunch on the Saints.
Washington (-6.5) at Minnesota: The game of the weekend, at least regarding a playoff spot. The Vikings still lead the wild-card race, but the Redskins have played inspired football since Sean Taylor's death.x
There could be some ugly QB play here between Washington's Todd Collins and Minnesota's Tarvaris Jackson, so I'll go with the better rushing attack. The pick: Buy to 7.5 and take Redskins to cover, but I think Vikings win.
Atlanta (+10) at Arizona: Not much reason to watch this game. Arizona was eliminated from the playoff chase, and Atlanta is in more disarray than any team in recent NFL history. Can't even see the Falcons scoring 10 points, however. The pick: Buy down to 9.5 and take the Cardinals.
NY Jets (-8.5) at Tennessee: Another seemingly lopsided matchup. Reportedly, Chad Pennington will be back at starting QB for the Jets, but they have nothing to play for. Tennessee must win to keep pace in the AFC. The pick: Titans.
Baltimore (NL) at Seattle: Kyle Boller starts against for Baltimore, which could be without Ray Lewis on defense, which would be big. Seattle still is in a fight for the No. 3 seed, and the Ravens have quit. Expect a line of around 10 when it's posted.
The pick: Seahawks.
Tampa Bay (-6) at San Francisco: Earnest Graham has been one of the surprises of the year as Tampa Bay has clinched the NFC South. The 49ers' Frank Gore looked great in a win against the Bengals last week, but that was the Bengals. I expect a low-scoring game here, but the Bucs should win by 7.
The pick: Buccaneers.
Denver (+8.5) at San Diego, Monday: LaDainian Tomlinson is playing at his 2006 form, which is all you need to know here. The pick: Chargers.
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