If you are reading this story expecting me to somehow formulate a way that the 1-13 Miami Dolphins can upset the 14-0 New England Patriots on Sunday in Foxboro, stop reading.
It's just a matter of whether Miami can cover the 22-point spread (over/under: 45) on WagerWeb.com.
New England has nothing to play for, having clinched the No. 1 seed in the AFC. But coach Bill Belichick has said he doesn't plan to rest his starters much over the next two weeks, wanting to keep his players fresh and keep the momentum going as the playoffs approach.
"We'll play the same way. We'll do what we always do," Belichick said.
"I hope I play every snap," said Pats QB Tom Brady, who is 320 passing yards shy of Drew Bledsoe's 1994 club record of 4,555. "That's the most exciting part of my job is playing, not practicing."
New England still has much to play for. The Patriots have won 17 consecutive regular-season games dating to last year, one shy of their NFL record of 18 in a row set in 2003-04. Brady needs four touchdown passes to match the league record of 49 set by Peyton Manning in 2004. Randy Moss is three scoring receptions away from the mark of 22 set by Jerry Rice in 1987.
Oh, and there's the revenge factor! Believe it or not, the Dolphins are the last team to beat New England.
The last loss was a 21-0 defeat in Miami on Dec. 10, 2006. Of course, Miami followed that up with 16 straight defeats before beating Baltimore 22-16 in overtime last Sunday.
Maybe Miami will be motivated by the Oct. 21 game against the Patriots. New England led 42-7 at alftime and won 49-28 in Miami. But what angered many Dolphins was after Miami cut the deficit to 42-21 with 10:30 left. Belichick then put Brady back in the game, and he threw a TD pass.
Actually, the Patriots have looked somewhat human of late.
After having at least three TD passes in each of New England's first 10 games, Brady has not thrown for more than two in three of the last four games. Moss has averaged 72.8 yards receiving in that span while
catching three touchdown passes, compared to a 105.2 average and 16 TDs through 10 games.New England won each of its first eight games by at least 21 points. Four of the last six games have been decided by 10 points or less.
The Patriots did run for 131 yards last week against the Jets, their highest total since October, and Laurence Maroney had his second 100-yard game of the season as he was given a season-high 26 carries. A lot of that had to do with the blizzard they were playing in.
Maroney may get a workout this week, as he faces a Miami run defense that's allowing a league-worst 155.9 yards per game. The Dolphins have given up at least 163 rushing yards in three straight games.
But Belichick may also want to get Brady the TD record on Sunday against a bad team rather than the following week against the Giants.
Brady is the league's top rated QB with a rating of 119.7 and has thrown 10 more TDs than any other QB.
Despite throwing the ball 503 times, Brady has only been intercepted six times, the least for anybody over 400 passes.
The lowdown: No team has won its first 15 games since the league adopted a 16-game schedule in 1978.
... New England owns the most explosive passing attack in the NFL. With nearly 300 yards a game coming through the air, the Patriots are gaining over 10 yards more a game than second place Green Bay. But Miami owns the fourth-best pass defense. Yet the Dolphins are 21st in the NFL with 27 QB sacks while their interception total of 11 puts them at 26th. ... The Dolphins own the 20th-ranked run game (98 yards per game), but their 4.0 yards per carry ranks 13th. ... The Dolphins have one of the worst passing attacks in the league, averaging just 189 yards per game. The Patriots have the fifth-ranked pass defense, allowing just 191 yards per game. Their secondary has come up with 18 (fifth in the league) interceptions and their pass rush has produced 39 sacks (third in the league).
... Miami star DE Jason Taylor matched a team record by playing in his 128th straight game last weekend, and could break Hall of Fame center Jim Langer's mark Sunday if he gets on the field Sunday.
But he tore his left plantar fascia during last weekend's win over the Baltimore Ravens and may not play - or just sparingly.
... So, will Miami cover this game? In bad weather, maybe, but it's supposed to be nearly 50 on Sunday, so no help there. Patriots cover.
Betting Trends
The Dolphins are 4-8 ATS.
The Dolphins are 2-3 ATS away.
The Dolphins are 4-6 ATS as the underdog.
The Dolphins are 2-3 ATS as an away underdog.
The Patriots are 10-4 ATS.
The Patriots are 5-2 ATS at home.
The Patriots are 10-4 ATS as the favorite.
The Patriots are 5-2 ATS as a home favorite.
More NFL Trends.
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