Saturday, December 29, 2007

College Football Odds - Liberty Bowl


What: Liberty Bowl
Who: Central Florida (10-3) vs. Mississippi State (7-5)
Where: Liberty Bowl, Memphis
When: Saturday, 4:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com line: Central Florida -3 (55.5)

A somewhat nondescript bowl between Conference USA's UCF Golden Knights and the SEC's Mississippi State Bulldogs is worth watching for one reason: running back Kevin Smith.

UCF's Smith, the national rushing leader, is the best player you may never have heard of. Smith needs 181 yards to beat the I-A season record of 2,628 by Barry Sanders of Oklahoma State in 1988. And the junior already said he would return to school for his senior season.

Led by Smith, UCF is the 13th highest scoring team in the nation (38.4 points per game). He leads all FBS players with 2,448 rushing yards and 30 touchdowns, and became the first player in school history to earn All-America honors.

In the C-USA title game against Tulsa, Smith also set the NCAA all-time single-season record in rushing attempts with 415, 12 more than Marcus Allen had at USC in 1981.

The Knights, C-USA's champs, could be staring at a Top 25 finish with a win, which would be their first in a bowl. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, earned their first postseason spot since 2000.What coach Sylvester Croom as accomplished at Mississippi State is also impressive. He took over a program that went just 8-27 from 2001-03, and things didn't get much better. The Bulldogs went 9-25 in Croom's first three seasons, and were once again picked to finish last in the SEC West Division before the start of this season.

After just five conference wins in their last five seasons, the Bulldogs finished 4-4 in SEC play, tied for third in the West, and will be playing in their first bowl game since defeating Texas A&M 43-41 in the 2000 Independence Bowl.

"It's an affirmation first of all of the commitment to diversity that our university has, a commitment to building a program the right way," said Croom, who was named the SEC coach of the year. "This has not been an overnight kind of deal. It's been a gradual building process."

Croom's run defense will need to improve upon its 4.2-yard-per-carry average to slow Smith. Mississippi State has allowed an average of 159.0 rushing yards this season, and has given up more than 200 yards on the ground in four of its last six games.

The Bulldogs have not had much success on the offensive side of the ball this season, as they are averaging only 22.4 ppg and 305.3 total ypg. Tailback Anthony Dixon, however, has enjoyed a solid campaign and he leads MSU with 980 rushing yards and 15 total touchdowns (13 rushing). Dixon, though, is averaging just 3.7 yards per carry and has rushed for a total of just 66 yards over his last two games.

True freshman Wesley Carroll started the last seven games at quarterback for the Bulldogs and he led the team to a 4-3 record during that span. In eight starts and 12 appearances for the season, Carroll has completed 53.2 percent of his throws for 1,353 yards with nine touchdowns and six interceptions.

The teams have met once before, with MSU beating UCF 35-28 in 1997.

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