Tuesday, December 18, 2007

NFL Odds - Jaguars vs. Steelers


The NFL game of the week features two 9-4 teams Sunday in Jacksonville and Pittsburgh, with the host Steelers 3.5-point favorites on WagerWeb.com.

And while this should be an entertaining, physical, low-scoring matchup (especially with the weather expected to play a big factor), in a way it doesn't mean that much.

The Jaguars are pretty much locked into a wild-card spot, while the Steelers have pretty much sewn up the AFC North barring a collapse. All that's left is seeding for both teams.

That's not to say there's nothing to play for.

Pittsburgh is one game ahead of Cleveland for the top spot in the AFC North and can officially clinch a playoff berth with a win and would capture the division with a victory coupled by a Browns' loss to Buffalo on Sunday. Pittsburgh also holds the tiebreaker advantage over Cleveland.

The Jags can secure a playoff spot with a win over the Steelers combined with a Tennessee loss or tie in its game with Kansas City this weekend.

With the weather expected to be windy with a snow/rain mix, expect plenty of running the ball.

The Jaguars own the second-best ground attack in the NFL (143.8 ypg) behind Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew and are coming off a 179-yard effort against the Panthers in Week 14. The Steelers, thanks to tailback Willie Parker, average 141.6 rushing yards per contest.

Yet both defenses are stingy against the run: The Jaguars surrendered only 50 rushing yards in Week 14 while Pittsburgh has allowed only one runner to gain 100 yards this season. In addition, Pittsburgh leads the league in scoring defense (14.5 points per game) and total defense (245.5 yards per game.)

However, both defenses suffered key losses this week as Jags defensive tackle Marcus Stroud and Steelers defensive end Aaron Smith were lost for the season.Even without Stroud, who has been hurt much of the year, Jacksonville's defense has been almost as good as Pittsburgh's. Though the Jaguars are only 17th in the league in total defense (330.7 ypg), they're sixth in scoring defense (17.6 ppg) and have 26 takeaways.

Another big injury to watch is that of Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben returned to practice Friday after missing two days with soreness in his right shoulder, but he is listed as questionable on the club's injury report.

It is expected that Roethlisberger, who has started all 13 games for the Steelers, will start.

But that determination likely won't be made until Sunday, when the Steelers see how his shoulder has responded to rest and treatment.

Roethlisberger's career-high 26 touchdown passes tie him for fourth-most in the NFL, and his quarterback rating of 101.4 is also fourth. However, he's been sacked 38 times -- second-most in the league.

Ten-year veteran Charlie Batch, who has played sparingly in 2007 and thrown only five passes, would start if Roethlisberger cannot play.

Good news for Pittsburgh is that safety Troy Polamalu should finally return.

The lowdown: The Steelers' defense has allowed only two or more touchdowns four times this season, and other than Tom Brady last weekend, no opposing QB has thrown for more than 250 yards this season against Pittsburgh. . The Steelers are just 8-10 against Jacksonville since the Jaguars entered the league in 1995, and though they're 5-3 in Pittsburgh, they've dropped three of the last four meetings with Jacksonville there. The teams' most recent matchup was last Sept. 18 in Jacksonville, which the Steelers lost 9-0. . Jaguars QB David Garrard has thrown for 2,113 yards and 13 touchdowns with just one interception in the 10 games he's played. His 103.3 quarterback rating is third in the NFL. . Pittsburgh is 7-0 at home this season and has outscored visitors 180-64 at Heinz Field in 2007. I expect the Steelers to win this game, but the best play might be going under the total of 36 with the weather and an iffy Roethlisberger.

Betting trends

The Jaguars are 9-4 ATS.
The Jaguars are 5-1 ATS away.
The Jaguars are 4-2 ATS as the underdog.
The Jaguars are 4-1 ATS as an away underdog.
The Steelers are 7-6 ATS.
The Steelers are 5-2 ATS at home.
The Steelers are 7-5 ATS as the favorite.
The Steelers are 5-2 ATS as a home favorite.

More NFL Trends.

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