Week 15 of the NFL season concludes Monday night in Minneapolis, with the 7-6 Vikings 10.5-point favorites (42.5 over/under) on WagerWeb.com over the visiting 5-8 Chicago Bears.
If you want to go simply by motivation in betting this matchup, lean toward Minnesota. The utterly disappointing Bears are playing out the string, while the Vikings are in the middle of a dogfight for the final NFC wild-card spot - they currently Saints and Redskins by half a game.
Minnesota has won four games in a row and five of six.
"I think if you told our guys a month ago that they were going to be the hunted instead of going hunting, they probably would have asked you, 'Well, how's that going to happen?'" Minnesota coach Brad Childress.
Since losing to Green Bay 34-0 on Nov. 11, the Vikings are averaging almost 35 points during their four-game winning streak, and have outscored their last three opponents by a combined score of 110-34.
Really, every conceivable statistic favors the Vikings tonight:
The Bears have the second-worst rushing attack in the league (82.0 ypg) while Minnesota has the NFL’s top-ranked run defense (70.7 ypg) and has allowed an average of just 47.6 yards per game on the ground in its past five home games. In addition, Chicago is down to its second-string running back in Adrian Peterson.
The Bears are only 24th in the league against the run (123.2 ypg) and probably aren’t looking forward to seeing Vikings rookie Adrian Peterson again. In the teams’ first meeting, a 34-31 Minnesota win Oct. 14,
Peterson rushed for a then-franchise record 224 yards, the most rushing yards ever surrendered by the Bears in their 88-year history, and scored on runs of 67, 73 and 35 yards.”We were embarrassed,” defensive end Adewale Ogunleye said. “He’s a rookie, and you never want a rookie to run as much as he did on us.”
Peterson and Chester Taylor make up the league’s No. 1 rushing attack, averaging 172.2 yards per game, a league best 5.5 yards per carry, and a league high 18 rushing touchdowns. Peterson is averaging 6.1 yards per carry and Taylor 5.3, which ranks No. 1 and No. 3 in the NFL.
Their success recently has brought out the best in QB Tarvaris Jackson (1267 passing yards, 6 TD, 7 INT).
The second-year player is a combined 61-of-83 (73.5 percent) passing for 667 yards with four touchdowns and two INTs in his last four games combined.
The Bears are down to their third-string quarterback tonight. With Rex Grossman hurt, Kyle Orton gets the start over Brian Griese. Orton has not played since a 34-10 loss to Minnesota on Jan. 1, 2006. He did help lead the Bears to a 10-5 record in that 2005 season, his rookie year. Orton threw for 1,869 yards, nine touchdowns and 13 interceptions with a 59.7 quarterback rating.
"I think everybody knows that I've been frustrated and haven't liked my role, but it's what it was and I tried to make the best of it and now my job's just to focus on the future and try to play well and let everything work itself out," Orton said.
The lowdown: Vikings safety Dwight Smith, who has four INTs this season, is expected to play despite a misdemeanor citation this week for marijuana possession. ... The Vikings remain the only team in the league with more first downs rushing (108) than passing (107). ... The Vikings have as many touchdowns on returns (nine) as passing touchdowns. ... The Vikings are ranked 13th on offense (1st rushing, 31st passing) and 25th on defense (1st rushing and 32nd passing). The Bears are ranked 22nd on offense (31st rushing, 14th passing) and 29th on defense (24th rushing, 26th passing). ... The Vikings are sixth in giveaway-takeway ratio with a plus-10 " with 30 takeaways and 20 giveaways. The Bears are ranked 20th at minus-6" with 24 takeaways and 30 giveaways. ... Devin Hester leads the Bears in touchdowns with six" three on punt returns, two on kickoff returns and one on an 81-yard pass reception against the Vikings in October. ... Hester is due another return TD, so I think he gets one and keeps the Bears close enough to cover, but that the Vikings get the victory.
Betting Trends
The Bears are 4-9 ATS.
The Bears are 3-4 ATS away.
The Bears are 2-4 ATS as the underdog.
The Bears are 2-3 ATS as an away underdog.
The Vikings are 7-4 ATS.
The Vikings are 4-2 ATS at home.
The Vikings are 4-0 ATS as the favorite.
The Vikings are 3-0 ATS as a home favorite.
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