Friday, December 28, 2007

College Football Odds: Holiday Bowl


What: Holiday Bowl
Who: No. 12 Arizona State (10-2) vs. No. 17 Texas (9-3)
Where: Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego
When: Thursday, 8 p.m.
WagerWeb.com line: Texas -2.5 (62)


The Pac-10's Arizona State Sun Devils
and Big 12's Texas Longhorns meet in one of the best non-BCS bowl games out there. However, what should be a great matchup has been tempered somewhat by disappointment on both sides, as both had BCS dreams.

First-year ASU coach Dennis Erickson guided the Sun Devils to their most wins since getting 11 in 1996 -- the last time they won the Pac-10 title. However, with USC heading to the Rose Bowl this season as the Pac-10 champ, thanks to a 44-24 win over Arizona State on Nov. 22, Arizona State was relegated to the Holiday Bowl after the nearby Fiesta Bowl wasn't allowed to choose the Sun Devils.

Then there's Texas, which is headed to its fourth Holiday Bowl in eight years. The four appearances by Texas are the second most of any team behind BYU, which has made 11 trips since the bowl originated in 1978. Incidentally, the Longhorns' three visits have been decided by a total of 17 points. Their lone win, a 47-43 shootout with Washington in 2001, was sandwiched by losses to Oregon (35-30) in 2000 and Washington State (28-20) in 2003.

Yet both coaches know that once their kids strap it up, motivation won't be a problem.

"When you think about college football, you think about SC, you think of Ohio State, you think of Texas," Erickson said. "That's a perennial power. So for our guys to have the opportunity to play a storied program like that is great."

"What you want to do in a bowl game is play somebody that you have great respect for," Texas coach Mack Brown said. "That doesn't always happen. We feel like we're very, very fortunate to be playing a BCS-caliber football team."

Brown and Erickson, longtime friends who have combined for three national titles, have never faced each other, and this will be the first meeting between the schools as well.

Sophomore quarterback Colt McCoy and All-Big 12 tailback Jamaal Charles are the key pieces in Texas' offense, which ranked 13th nationally in total yards (426.0), 19th in scoring (36.0) and 25th in rushing yards (199.8). The Longhorns produced at least 400 yards of total offense in eight games and scored 30 points or more eight times.

McCoy passed for 3,129 yards and 21 touchdowns, but his 18 interceptions should be a concern against an Arizona State defense that picked off 17 passes - six by safety Troy Nolan.

Charles topped the Big 12 and ranked among the national leaders with 121.5 yards per game. He averaged 184.0 yards in his final four games, including a career-best 290 against Nebraska on Oct. 27.

While Texas, in its 47th bowl (second to Alabama) certainly will look to establish Charles early on, it might be easier said than done vs. a Sun Devil defense than ranks 13th rationally.

Sun Devils quarterback Rudy Carpenter could be poised for a big performance against the Longhorns, who allowed 275.5 passing yards per game -- one of the worst marks in the country. Carpenter has thrown seven touchdown passes and only one interception in his last five games. But only two teams have allowed more sacks than Arizona State's 51 this season.

The Sun Devils are 12-9-1 all-time in bowl games.

Prediction: The Longhorns have won three straight bowl games and will make it four in what should be an entertaining shootout: 41-27

Arizona State vs. Texas Betting Trends:

Texas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

The total has gone OVER in 8 of Texas's last 11 games

Arizona State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

Arizona State is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games

More College Football betting trends.

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