Saturday, December 29, 2007

College Football Odds - Champs Sports Bowl


What: Champs Sports Bowl
Who: No. 14 Boston College (10-3) vs. Michigan State (7-5)
Where: Citrus Bowl, Orlando
When: Friday, 5 p.m.
WagerWeb.com line: Boston College -5 (56)

The ACC's Boston College Eagles, once the No. 2 team in the country, face the Big Ten's Michigan State Spartans in a game that has potential upset written all over it.

BC reached the ACC Championship Game this season (losing 30-16 to Virginia Tech) under first-year coach Jeff Jagodzinski, finishing the regular season with 10 wins for the just the second time in school history.

In addition, BC is playing its school-record ninth straight bowl game and has won a nation-high seven bowl games in a row (tied with Utah).

But will the Eagles be going through the motions in this run of the mill bowl after opening 8-0 and being ranked No. 2 as late as the Oct. 28 poll, with quarterback Matt Ryan a Heisman Trophy candidate?

"I don't think you look at it as a consolation," Jagodzinski said. "I'm looking forward to taking my team to a bowl."

Well, perhaps that bowl winning streak is enough motivation - BC has gone unbeaten in college football's postseason since a 62-28 loss to Colorado in the 1999 Insight.com Bowl.

Michigan State will be thrilled to be in Orlando as the Spartans last played in a bowl game in 2003. Under first-year coach Mark Dantonio, the Spartans closed the regular season with two straight wins to finish 7-5 and to earn their first bowl since dropping a 17-3 decision to Nebraska in the 2003 Alamo Bowl.

The Spartans will have to stop BC's Ryan to have a shot at the upset. Ryan was fifth in the nation with 327.5 passing yards per game, and won the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award as the country's top senior quarterback. He also set school passing records with 4,258 yards and 28 touchdowns this season. Ryan has completed 60.3 percent of his tosses, although he did throw 18 interceptions.

Perhaps BC will use its ground attack heavily against MSU as the Spartans have allowed an average of 179.8 yards on the ground in their last five games. That could mean plenty of senior Andre Callender, who leads BC in catches (72) to go along with 705 receiving yards and four touchdowns. He also has rushed for 936 yards and nine more scores.

As a team, BC is averaging 28.6 ppg and 434.5 total ypg this season.

Michigan State is an even better offensive team in some respects, averaging 34.1 ppg and 426.2 total ypg for the season. The offense was balanced well between the run (200.3 ypg) and pass (225.9 ypg), QB Brian Hoyer was second in the Big Ten with a 138.9 quarterback rating, RB Javon Ringer ranked third with 1,346 rushing yards and WR Devin Thomas topped the conference with 1,226 receiving yards. Ringer and Jehuu Caulcrick give Michigan State a formidable one-two punch in the backfield; Caulcrick has rushed for 21 touchdowns this year.BC is holding its opponents to 20.3 ppg and only 329.2 total ypg. The Eagles have been especially tough against opposing ground attacks, yielding a nation-low 68.1 rushing ypg.

The Eagles are 3-1-1 all-time against Michigan State, but the programs haven't played since 1995. That year, the Spartans earned their only win against BC, 25-21 at home.

Prediction: Michigan State will have about 20,000 more fans and seems much more excited to be playing in this game. The Spartans pull the upset as they give notice they will be a force in the Big Ten next year. MSU 27, BC 24.

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