Saturday, December 29, 2007

College Football Odds - Emerald Bowl


What: Emerald Bowl
Who: Maryland (6-6) vs. Oregon State (8-4)
Where: AT&T Park, San Francisco
When: Friday, 8:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com line: Oregon State -5 (47)

Two up-and-down teams from BCS conferences square off in a baseball park on Friday night as Maryland of the ACC faces Oregon State of the Pac-10.

Maryland recorded upsets of Rutgers and Boston College, both ranked in the top 10 at the time, but also had a three-game midseason skid. The Terps did end the regular season with a resounding 37-0 victory
over North Carolina State.

And Maryland has outscored its last three bowl opponents 96-17. After losing to Florida in the Orange Bowl in coach Ralph Friedgen's first season, the Terps beat Tennessee 30-3 in the 2002 Peach Bowl, West Virginia 41-7 in the Gator Bowl in 2006, and Purdue 24-7 in last season's Champs Sports Bowl. However, Friedgen also started with three consecutive 10-win seasons and an ACC championship from 2001-03.

As for Oregon State, it found its stride late in the year. The Beavers were just 2-3 after a 40-14 loss to UCLA this year, then won six of their final seven games, losing only to USC. That included a 31-28 upset at then-No. 2 California. The top matchup could be Oregon State's stingy run defense, ranked second in the nation, against Maryland tailbacks Keon Lattimore and Lance Ball. Lattimore and Ball rushed for a combined 1,552 yards and 25 touchdowns this year.

However, Oregon State only allows 2.1 yards per carry, and the Beavers have a star runner of their own in Yvenson Bernard. He underwent knee surgery the last week of the regular season and missed the Oregon game but is expected to start. He averages 103.7 rushing (third in the Pac-10) and had 12 touchdowns this season.

He recently passed Steven Jackson for second place on the Beavers' all-time career rushing list, and 140 rushing yards against Maryland would move him up to No. 6 in Pac-10 career rushing yardage.

"That's all cool, but it comes down to what you can do for your team in a game," said Bernard, who also caught 36 passes, second best on the team, and his 118 career catches rank ninth on the school's all-time list.

The Beavers also have a wild card on their side: Mike Riley is 6-0 in bowl games - 3-0 as Oregon State's head coach and 3-0 when he was USC's offensive coordinator.

"I don't think there's anything magical," Riley said.

"It's more a carryover from the improvement of the team during the season."

Prediction: It's hard to know which Maryland team you will get, and Friedgen obviously gets his club well-prepared by his bowl record. Still, with a healthy Bernard, the Beavers were arguably the second-best team in the Pac-10 by the end of the season. OSU 20, Maryland 14.

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