The Green Bay Packers got an early Christmas gift last week when the current NFC top-seeded Dallas Cowboys were upset at home by the Philadelphia Eagles.
That kept Green Bay alive for the No. 1 seed in the conference, but the Packers likely will need to win out, beginning Sunday in Chicago, where Green Bay is an 8.5-point favorite (35.5 over/under) on WagerWeb.com in the NFL's oldest rivalry.
If Dallas loses one of its final two games, at Carolina and at Washington, and the Packers sweep Chicago and Detroit, the Packers will finish with the best record in the NFC and host the NFC championship against the Cowboys if both teams make it that far.
"We're playing for home-field advantage, and that will be our focus," Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy said.
The Packers also have the revenge factor. One of the few bright spots this year for the Bears was a 27-20 win at Green Bay on Oct. 7. It is one of just four games this season in which Packers QB Brett Favre has had more interceptions (two) than touchdowns (one) as the Packers blew a 10-point halftime lead and had a season-high five turnovers in their first loss of the season.
"There's a lot of emotion," McCarthy said. "The importance of this game is very evident. It's probably the best rival football game in the National Football League, and we need to be 13-2 when we come back from
Chicago."
Favre leds an air attack that is one of the most explosive in the league, averaging 286.4 yards per contest. Favre is putting together his best season in three years and was named to his ninth Pro Bowl on Tuesday. He needs just 95 yards passing on Sunday to reach 4,000 for the fifth time in his career.
Favre has a career 13-2 road record against Chicago.
Green Bay's season really took off when running back Ryan Grant did. He has averaged 95.3 yards rushing a game and 4.7 yards a carry since becoming the Packers' primary back the last eight games.
Since Week 8, Grant has 772 rushing yards, second in the NFL behind LaDainian Tomlinson's 784.And the Bears defense has been porous against the run, allowing 124.1 yards per game on the ground. That unit did play well Monday night, holding Vikings running back Adrian Peterson, who had shredded them for 224 yards on 20 carries two months ago, to just 44 yards on his first 17 carries before he broke free for two key runs late in the 20-13 contest. The Bears also had four turnovers and two sacks.
"On Monday night, they played with a different swagger," receiver Greg Jennings said. "Their defense was struggling earlier in the year, and now after watching them Monday night it looked like they were back to the same old Bears defense."
Making his first start since the 2005 season finale, Bears QB Kyle Orton completed 22 of 38 passes for 184 yards, no touchdowns and one interception in the loss at Minnesota on Monday. The Bears finished with 209 yards - their second-lowest total of the season.
Chicago also has been hampered by the worst rushing attack in football with 1,098 yards. It was especially bad Monday against the NFL's top-ranked rushing defense as the Bears managed a season-low 32 yards on the ground.
The Packers are solid derailing an opponent's ground assault, yielding 105 yards per contest. However, Green Bay did allow 173 yards in Week 15 against the Rams.
The lowdown: This is the 175th installment of this rivalry, the NFL's longest, which began in 1921 when Green Bay's Curly Lambeau and Chicago's George Halas ran the shows. The Bears enjoy an 89-79-6 lead in the series, but the Packers have dominated in the Brett Favre era, going 22-9 overall and 12-2 at Soldier Field since No. 4 grabbed the wheel in 1992. ... Under Lovie Smith, the Bears are 5-2 against the Packers.
... The Packers have 1,851 yards after the catch - most in the NFL. ... The Packers have allowed an opponent to rush for at least 105 yards four times in the last five games. ... Green Bay has everything to lose in this game, with the Bears nothing to gain.
Often, that is a dangerous mix, but the Chicago offense was terrible under Orton. Still, I could see a defensive or special teams TD keeping this as only a 7-point loss for Chicago.
Betting trends
The Packers are 11-2 ATS.
The Packers are 6-1 ATS away.
The Packers are 7-1 ATS as the favorite.
The Packers are 4-0 ATS as an away favorite.
The Bears are 5-9 ATS.
The Bears are 1-5 ATS at home.
The Bears are 3-4 ATS as the underdog.
The Bears are 0-1 ATS as a home underdog.
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