Tuesday, December 18, 2007

NFL Odds - Lions vs. Chargers


Free Fallin. A great Tom Petty song and also an apt description of the 6-7 Detroit Lions heading into Sunday's game at San Diego (8-5), with the Chargers 10-point favorites (over/under 45.5) on WagerWeb.com.

The Lions were one of the NFL's early-season surprises at 6-2 and appeared a lock to reach the 10-win plateau that QB Jon KitnaDallas.

Detroit is one game back of Minnesota for the NFC's final wild-card spot, and because of tiebreaker scenarios, is also behind three other teams with 6-7 records.

"The last five weeks have been awfully tough," Lions center Dominic Raiola said. "Our backs are really against the wall now, and we've got no one to blame but ourselves."

Detroit's defensive play has been a factor in the skid, as it has allowed an average of 430.7 yards and 35.7 points in its last three games. The Lions have he second-worst defense in the league (371.2), and third-worst scoring defense (26.1).

San Diego has won a season high-tying three straight and seven of nine overall after opening 1-3.

The Chargers lead the AFC West by two games over Denver. The reigning division champs can win the West for the third time in the last four years if they beat the Lions.

Injuries will play a big role in this game.

San Diego will be without All-Pro linebacker Shawne Merriman, who sprained a ligament in his left knee against the Titans last Sunday. Merriman had two sacks early in the game before getting knocked out in the second quarter. He has 11.5 sacks and 18 QB hurries this season.

In addition Chargers starting QB Philip Rivers is questionable because of a sprained knee. Rivers sprained his left knee in Sunday's win at Tennessee and didn't practice Wednesday. He shared the quarterback duties with Billy Volek on Thursday and Friday at practice, and hopes to be ready for the Lions.

"That's the plan and what I'm shooting for," Rivers said.Other notable Charger injuries: fullback Lorenzo Neal (leg) and defensive end Luis Castillo (ankle) are out Sunday, while tight end Antonio Gates (back) and defensive tackle Jamal Williams (ankle) practiced Friday, although in a limited capacity, and are listed as questionable.


Meanwhile, reigning league MVP LaDainian Tomlinson has found his groove for San Diego, rushing for 323 yards and three touchdowns on 49 attempts in his last two games. He needs just five yards to join Eric Dickerson as the only running backs to rush for at least 1,200 yards in each of his first seven seasons.

Tomlinson is the NFL's third-leading rusher with 1,195 yards and is second in the league in total yards from scrimmage with 1,649.

"I think he's more effective as a receiver because when he gets the ball as a receiver, he's already in the open field," Lions linebacker Boss Bailey said.

"They like to throw a quick swing pass to him and let him go to work. I think he's more of a threat catching the ball in the open field because he's harder to get to."

The lowdown: San Diego has won five straight in the series dating to 1981. . Star Lions WR Roy Williams won't play due to injury. . The Chargers yield an average of only 214.1 yards passing per game. .

Detroit ground game had one of its best rushing outings of the year in Sunday's loss vs. Dallas, gaining 152 yards on a 4.8-yards-per-carry average. .

Detroit's air assault is one of the most explosive in the league, averaging 248.5 yards per contest. . The Lions have been poor protecting their quarterback, yielding 52 sacks thus far, while the Chargers' offensive line has been solid at protecting Rivers, only yielding 21 sacks. . You would think Detroit would be too broken of a team to be very competitive in this game, and the Lions are a lot weaker outside of the dome. I'd take San Diego and give the points, Rivers or no Rivers, but buy down to 9.5.


Betting trends

The Lions are 6-6 ATS.
The Lions are 2-4 ATS away.
The Lions are 4-4 ATS as the underdog.
The Lions are 2-3 ATS as an away underdog.
The Chargers are 8-5 ATS.
The Chargers are 5-1 ATS at home.
The Chargers are 5-3 ATS as the favorite.
The Chargers are 4-1 ATS as a home favorite.

More NFL Trends.
predicted and reach the playoffs for the first time since 1999. But now Detroit is trying to avoid its sixth loss in a row after blowing last week's game to

No comments: