Wednesday, December 12, 2007

NFL Odds - Broncos vs. Texans


Two teams with remote playoff hopes face off Thursday night to open Week 15 of the NFL season as the 6-7 Denver Broncos visit the 6-7 Houston Texans, with the game a pick’em (over/under 47.5) at WagerWeb.com.

Realistically, neither team has much of a shot at the postseason. The loser is mathematically out if Cleveland, currently holding down the final wild-card spot, beats Buffalo on Sunday. But even a win doesn’t give a lot of hope to these teams, as both finish with difficult games: Denver at San Diego and
vs. Minnesota, and Houston at Indianapolis and vs. Jacksonville.

Both teams have a bit of momentum entering Thursday night, as both come off wins.

Denver routed Kansas City 41-7 - the Broncos’ most lopsided win since October. 2000. QB Jay Cutler was stellar, going 20-of-27 for 244 yards and four touchdowns.

"He has a strong arm, and I think the way he's running the offense is great, and they put up big numbers (Sunday) against Kansas City, so we've got our hands full," Texans safety Will Demps said.

However, the real breakout star for Denver has been RB Selvin Young. The undrafted rookie rushed for 156 yards on 17 carries against K.C. He has run for 569 yards on just 100 carries for an AFC-best 5.7 yards per attempt.

"The game, I feel like it's come to me a lot faster than I was expecting," said Young. "I was expecting for it to be extremely rough, just expecting the worst, but understanding in my head that I was going to fight through it, regardless. But just that fight and being ready for whatever and expecting the worst has kind of brought the best out of me."

Injuries to Travis Henry have increased Young's opportunities this season, even helping earn the rookie five starts. Young has posted 11 runs of at least 10 yards, including a career-best 50-yard run against the Chiefs on Sunday.

With three games remaining, Young has a chance to continue leaving his mark. His 569 yards rushing rank sixth among undrafted rookies since 1967. He is third among rookie running backs this season, trailing only Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch, both first-round picks.

Denver could get a boost from the return of WR Javon Walker, who is questionable. His surgically repaired knee will be monitored during practice this week, and the team hopes he can play now that Brandon Stokley is hobbled by a knee injury.

Meanwhile, Houston is coming off a 28-14 win over Tampa Bay in which backup QB Sage Rosenfels played very well. Rosenfels threw three touchdown passes and was 27-of-36 for 209 yards against the Buccaneers.

"I've always believed in myself, but I'm just trying to help this team win, trying to find wins, and we've got three left and hopefully we can win as many as we can win," Rosenfels said.

Rosenfels will get the start again for Matt Schaub, who is expected to miss his second straight game.

Schaub suffered a dislocated shoulder in a 28-20 loss at Tennessee on Dec. 2 and sat out the Bucs game."I don't see anything changing right now," Texans coach Gary Kubiak said. I don't think he'll be available."

Houston could also be without running back Ron Dayne, who is battling a nagging ankle injury.

Dayne rushed for 17 yards on seven carries Sunday before he was replaced by undrafted rookie Darius Walker, who gained 46 yards on 16 carries.

"I feel better that he (Walker) got some plays under his belt this week," Kubiak said. "We'll see. He'll have to make a big improvement this week for us to have a chance to beat this football team."

Dayne hopes to play Thursday, but expect Walker to get the bulk of the carries.

Star linebacker DeMeco Ryans (knee) did not participate in practice Tuesday but is likely to play.

He has played through past injuries and was running on the practice field Tuesday.

"I think there's a chance (Ryans won't play), but knowing that kid, I think he'll be ready to go," Kubiak said.

The lowdown: The Texans have been victorious in three of their last four at home, while the Broncos have dropped four of their last five on the road. ...

Denver held the Chiefs to just 16 rushing yards on 17 carries last week. ... Texans DE Mario Williams, the top overall pick is 2006, has 9.5 sacks this season, 4.5 of those coming in the last three weeks. ... The Broncos will be traveling to Houston for the first time since 1995, when they lost to the Oilers there, 42-33. ... Houston coach Gary Kubiak spent 11 seasons as the Broncos’ offensive coordinator. ... Denver is 5-1 when DE Elvis Dumervil has two or more sacks.

... The defenses are 20th (Denver) and 21st in yards allowed per game in the NFL. ... With Houston relying on a backup QB and backup running back, take Denver in this game.

Betting trends

The Broncos are 4-9 ATS.
The Broncos are 1-5 ATS away.
The Broncos are 2-3 ATS as the underdog.
The Broncos are 1-3 ATS as an away underdog.
The Texans are 6-6 ATS.
The Texans are 4-1 ATS at home.
The Texans are 0-2 ATS as the favorite.
The Texans are 0-1 ATS as a home favorite.

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