Sunday night's Bengals-Steelers game would seem to heavily favor host Pittsburgh, and WagerWeb.com has the Steelers (8-3) as 7-point betting favorites with an over/under of 39, but the Bengals actually have some good recent history on their side - not to mention a greater sense of urgency.
Cincinnati (4-7) has won two in a row and three of four at Pittsburgh's Heinz Field, and if they have any dream of making the playoffs, they need to win out.
"If we don't, we're finished," coach Marvin Lewis said. "We have no margin of error."
Actually, the visiting team has won nine of the last 10 in the series.
"Every time they play them, they play their 'A' ballgame," Steelers running back Willie Parker said. "Every time we play them, it's tough."
The weather could be a factor again in Pittsburgh, which it memorably was last Monday in that classically bad 3-0 win against the Dolphins. More rain and wind are expected, which could keep the points low.
Expect plenty of Parker from Pittsburgh; Parker had 126 yards rushing in Pittsburgh's Week 8 24-13 win in Cincinnati. The Steelers have the league's second-ranked rush offense (141.7) and Pittsburgh is 18-1 in Parker's career when he rushes for 100 yards, which he has done in the past three games against the Bengals. Parker's 257 rush attempts lead the NFL.
The Bengals' run defense has been among the worst in the league for most of the season but in their last three games they have held Willis McGahee to 60 yards, Edgerrin James to 52 and the Titans' entire rushing attack to 61.
That Titans game was Cincy's best of the year, winning 35-6. Carson Palmer was 32-of-38 for 283 yards and three touchdowns, all to Chad Johnson, who hadn't caught a TD since Week 2.
Palmer has 649 yards passing and seven touchdowns with just two interceptions in the past three meetings vs. Pittsburgh, though Cincinnati has gone 1-2.The Bengals also rushed for 148 yards against Tennessee, their second-best effort on the ground this season. Rudi Johnson, still recovering from a hamstring injury, rushed a season-high 25 times for 88 yards and a touchdown. (NFL Injury Update)
"I thought this week, his runs were more Rudi-like, the way he was finishing runs more than anything else," Lewis said. "That was good to see. It gives him more confidence in things."
Cincinnati's offense was expected to be good, and ranks fifth in the NFL with 361.2 yards per game. The Bengals' embattled defense, though, has established itself in recent weeks, allowing just 34 points in the last three games.
The Steelers' defense, meanwhile, is ranked first in the NFL in points allowed (13.2 per game) and yards allowed (229.2). But it will again be missing its heart and soul as safety Troy Polamalu is doubtful due to a knee injury.
Pittsburgh also will be without WR Santonio Holmes (ankle), the team's best deep threat. QB Ben Roethlisberger was good in the Week 8 win (19-26, 230 yards, 2 TDs) but will miss Holmes. Expect for him to look often to Hines Ward, who has 11 career touchdown receptions against the Bengals, the most of any opponent.
The lowdown: Pittsburgh is 28-10 at home since 2003, but three of those losses came to Cincinnati, which has won three of its last four at Heinz Field. . All three of Pittsburgh's defeats this season have come to teams that had losing records at the time, and the Bengals (4-7) are another club with a sub-.500 record. . A loss would send the Bengals to the franchise's 16th non-winning season in the past 17 years. . Roethlisberger has a 21-5 record at home as the Steelers starter. . The Bengals are 12-2 when Palmer throws three or more TDs. . Pittsburgh hasn't been playing all that great recently, and the weather could again limit any physical advantages the Steelers may have. Add that to the fact that the Bengals seem to be rejuvenated and that Pittsburgh might be looking ahead to playing the Patriots next week, and Cincinnati covers in this game.
Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers betting trends
The Bengals are 4-6 ATS.
The Bengals are 1-3 ATS away.
The Bengals are 1-3 ATS as the underdog.
The Bengals are 1-1 ATS as an away underdog.
The Steelers are 6-5 ATS.
The Steelers are 4-2 ATS at home.
The Steelers are 6-5 ATS as the favorite.
The Steelers are 4-2 ATS as a home favorite.
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