Two of the NFL's most surprising playoff contenders face off Sunday as the 8-5 Browns host the 7-6 Bills, with Cleveland a 5.5-point favorite (over/under 40) on WagerWeb.com.
The stakes are pretty simple: Cleveland can clinch one of the AFC's two wild-card spot with a victory and a Tennessee loss. If the Bills lose, they'll be eliminated from playoff contention. Both teams have won six of their last eight games.
Offensively, this game should be a mismatch.
Cleveland has scored at least 27 points in eight games, and its 27.7-point average ranks fifth in the NFL.
Since taking over for Charlie Frye in the season-opening loss to Pittsburgh, quarterback Derek Anderson has shined. He's thrown for 3,247 yards, and his 26 touchdown passes are tied for fourth-most in the league.
His main target is wide receiver Braylon Edwards, who has broken out in his third year in the league. He's caught 65 passes for 1,106 yards and 13 TDs – the third-most in the NFL.
Running back Jamal Lewis has been a nice surprise for Cleveland, as he has amassed 921 rushing yards and nine touchdowns this season, matching his TD total from last year with Baltimore.
Buffalo, meanwhile, only averages 283.6 yards per game, 28th in the league and 17.1 points, the third fewest in the AFC. However, the Bills did get 224 rushing yards behind a 1-2 punch of Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson last week. Lynch (858 rushing yards, 6 TDs) returned to the lineup for the first time since suffering a sprained ankle on Nov. 11 and ran for 107 yards on 23 carries. Jackson, meanwhile, added a career-high 115 yards on just 15 attempts and has 197 yards on the ground over his last two games.Meanwhile, rookie QB Trent Edwards threw four touchdown passes last week. No rookie had thrown four TDs in a game since Chicago's Cade McNown in 1999.
Of course, the Bills' 389-yard explosion last week came against the god-awful Dolphins, so take all that with a grain of salt. Four of the Bills' seven wins have come against the Jets (3-10) and Dolphins (0-13), while Buffalo has also bested Baltimore (4-9), Cincinnati (5-8) and Washington (6-7). So Buffalo may be doing it with mirrors: After all, they've been outscored by 69 points this year.
Turnovers -- or a lack thereof -- have been key to the Bills' success. They've committed just 17 -- only three teams in the league have fewer.
Cleveland's defense has ranked near the bottom of the league all season, so that bodes well for Buffalo.
The Browns allowed the Jets to rack up 387 net yards of offense last week and rank dead last in the league by allowing 389.7 yards per game. The club is also giving up a league-worst 27.4 points per game.
The lowdown: The Browns haven't beaten the Bills in the regular season since 1987 -- they've met just three times since. . Braylon Edwards' next scoring reception will break Gary Collins' single-season club record, set in 1963. This is another game that will be played in wintry conditions, with snow and 20-mph winds expected. Cleveland should cover the spread here, but go for the double and bet the under as well.
Betting trends
The Bills are 9-4 ATS.
The Bills are 3-3 ATS away.
The Bills are 6-4 ATS as the underdog.
The Bills are 2-3 ATS as an away underdog.
The Browns are 10-3 ATS.
The Browns are 5-1 ATS at home.
The Browns are 6-0 ATS as the favorite.
The Browns are 3-0 ATS as a home favorite.
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