Let’s get the injury nonsense out of the way first regarding the Pittsburgh offense for Super Bowl XLIII: Ben Roethlisberger and Hines Ward will play. Yes, Big Ben had some X-rays on his ribs this week, and, yes, Ward probably won’t be 100 percent with his knee injury. But they will both be in there – Ward was upgraded to probable on Friday and Big Ben isn’t on the injury report.
So how will that offense fare against a Cardinals defense that fairly dominated the Steelers in a 21-14 September 2007 victory?
Well, let’s assume that Roethlisberger doesn’t perform like he did in Super Bowl XL. He was just 9-of-21 for 123 yards and zero touchdowns in that win over the Seahawks. His 22.6 passer rating in that game - against a team that was 25th in the NFL against the pass - was an all-time low for a championship winner. But it might be concerning that he has thrown multiple interceptions in four of his nine postseason games.
“I expect it to be different this time,” Roethlisberger said. “I’m going to treat it like it might be my last [Super Bowl trip]. I’ve been here before and I kind of understand what went right and what went wrong last time.”
Pittsburgh is a 6.5-point favorite on WagerWeb.com.
The Cards’ defense definitely has improved in these playoffs. In fact, since being slaughtered by the Patriots in Week 16, Arizona’s defense hasn’t allowed a team more than 25 points. After finishing 28th in the NFL in points allowed during the regular season at 26.6, Arizona has cut that number to 20.7 in the playoffs. The Cards also have eight picks in the playoffs and have sacked opposing quarterbacks seven times and held Matt Ryan, Jake Delhomme and Donovan McNabb to a combined passer rating of 69.7.
Arizona has forced 12 turnovers in all in the playoffs, leading to 37 Cardinals points, and that doesn’t include the safety defensive end Antonio Smith had against the Falcons in the first round.
But in Pittsburgh’s favor is that Willie Parker has run for 100 yards in two of the past three games. The Steelers had the NFL’s 23rd-ranked running game in the regular season. They closed the season by rushing for 176 yards against Cleveland, 116 by Parker. They opened the playoffs by running for 165 yards against San Diego, 146 by Parker. Yes he was held in check by the Ravens, but they were putting eight and nine guys in the box.
Plus Roethlisberger has been pretty well-protected by his line and didn’t throw an interception in the two playoff games and had a 90.8 passer rating. Santonio Holmes has had a big-play touchdown in both games.
“All of a sudden, we said we’ve got a healthy, fresh, running back, and everybody else is pretty healthy on the offensive line and we’ve expanded our package,” offensive coordinator Bruce Arians said.
The Steelers’ over/under on WagerWeb.com is 27.
Arizona had the NFL’s 16th-ranked run defense in the regular season but has done well stopping the run during the playoffs. But the Cards won’t over-commit to stopping the run the way the Ravens did. The Cards also don’t have big, powerful defenders up front.
After running the ball just over 28 times per game in the regular season, the Steelers have are averaging 35 rushing attempts over two games against the Chargers and Ravens. The team that has rushed the ball more in the Super Bowl is 36-4 all-time. Does anyone doubt that Pittsburgh will be that team this time?
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WagerWeb.com Game Trends
* Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as a favorite.
* Steelers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 playoff games.
* Steelers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
* Steelers are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Steelers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
* Steelers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
* Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.
* Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
* Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
* Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
* Steelers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
* Steelers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
* Steelers are 24-11-1 ATS in their last 36 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
* Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
* Cardinals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
* Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
* Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
* Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games.
* Cardinals are 12-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 5-0 in Steelers last 5 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
* Over is 7-1 in Steelers last 8 playoff games as a favorite.
* Over is 6-1 in Steelers last 7 playoff games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
* Over is 12-2 in Steelers last 14 playoff games.
* Over is 4-1 in Steelers last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
* Over is 6-2 in Steelers last 8 games following a S.U. win.
* Over is 5-2 in Steelers last 7 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
* Over is 5-2 in Steelers last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
* Over is 5-2 in Steelers last 7 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
* Over is 5-2 in Steelers last 7 games following a ATS win.
* Over is 11-5 in Steelers last 16 games as a favorite.
* Over is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
* Over is 5-1 in Cardinals last 6 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
* Over is 20-6 in Cardinals last 26 games following a ATS win.
* Over is 38-13 in Cardinals last 51 games as an underdog.
* Over is 23-8 in Cardinals last 31 games on grass.
* Over is 22-8 in Cardinals last 30 games following a S.U. win.
* Over is 19-7 in Cardinals last 26 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
* Over is 19-7 in Cardinals last 26 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 38-14 in Cardinals last 52 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
* Over is 24-9 in Cardinals last 33 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
* Over is 20-8 in Cardinals last 28 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
* Over is 35-16 in Cardinals last 51 games overall.
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