Saturday, January 31, 2009

Super Bowl XLIII: Cardinals offense vs. Steelers defense


They say that some of the best ideas in history were stolen from other people. Well, I’m not above history, so I will admit to the first part of this story being paraphrased from SI.com, but it’s good stuff when looking at how that Arizona offense might fare against the NFL’s top-ranked Steeler defense on Sunday evening in XLIII.

The Cards, as you probably know, averaged 26.7 points per game in the regular season, third-best in the NFL. Arizona opened five games this season by jumping out to a lead of at least 10-0. In the ’ 12 wins, including the playoffs, they opened up leads averaging 18 points at some point. Against teams whose defense ranked in the top 15 in scoring, that average lead was even higher: 22 points per game. Now that’s fairly stunning.

The largest deficit the overcame in ‘08 was a 10-point hole in the third quarter against Dallas and 13-3 against Baltimore. Beyond that, they overcame three-, two- and one-point second-half leads to the Ravens, Chargers and Jaguars, respectively. Pittsburgh has only faced four teams with top 10 offenses, and half of their losses came in those games. They fell behind the Eagles 10-3 in the second quarter and never rallied; and they moved a total of one yard over two series while trailing the Giants by seven to give that game away.

OK, thank you SI.com. But does that information not make you believe that Arizona can win this game despite being 6.5-point underdogs on WagerWeb.com?

Pittsburgh’s defense, having held both of its playoff opponents to an average of 244 total yards, faces an offense that has recorded 357, 360, and 369 yards in three playoff games. And among all participants, the team that scored more points in the regular season (Arizona scored 427, Pittsburgh 347) is 23-17 in the (two Super Bowls featured teams that scored the same number of points in the regular season). Thirteen teams have finished first in total offense in the regular season and reached the . But only seven of them won.

The team with the top-ranked defense has reached the eight times previously since 1970. Seven times that team won, with the lone exception being the 1982 Dolphins.

The over/under for the on Sunday is 20 points on WagerWeb.com.

Of course you know about Cards QB Kurt Warner, who threw for 4,583 in the regular season and has thrown for 770 yards and eight touchdowns in the postseason. And you know about Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston, who all had more than 1,000 yards receiving in the regular season. Fitzgerald has followed that with an NFL-record 419 yards and five touchdowns in the playoffs.

But did you know that Arizona has become just the fourth team in NFL history to make the playoffs after finishing the regular season last in rushing offense? The Cards are the only team to win a playoff game, much less reach the .

But in the playoffs, Arizona is averaging 111 yards per game in three playoff contests, while outgaining its opponents on the ground 333 yards to 232. Edgerrin James has gone on to total 203 yards and a touchdown on 52 carries in three playoff games against the Falcons, Panthers and Eagles.

Frankly, this game probably comes down to whether James and the Cards can at least make a small dent in that Pittsburgh rush defense, which ranked No. 2 in the NFL and has allowed a total of 88 yards. Including the playoffs, the have not allowed a 100-yard rusher all season. James won’t get 100, but the Cards will cover.

Bet on the at WagerWeb.com

WagerWeb.com Game Trends
* are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as a favorite.
* are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 playoff games.
* are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
* are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
* are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
* are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.
* are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
* are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
* are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
* are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
* are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
* are 24-11-1 ATS in their last 36 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
* are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
* are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
* are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
* are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
* are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games.
* are 12-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 5-0 in last 5 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
* Over is 7-1 in last 8 playoff games as a favorite.
* Over is 6-1 in last 7 playoff games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
* Over is 12-2 in last 14 playoff games.
* Over is 4-1 in last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
* Over is 6-2 in last 8 games following a S.U. win.
* Over is 5-2 in last 7 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
* Over is 5-2 in last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
* Over is 5-2 in last 7 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
* Over is 5-2 in last 7 games following a ATS win.
* Over is 11-5 in last 16 games as a favorite.
* Over is 6-0 in last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
* Over is 5-1 in last 6 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
* Over is 20-6 in last 26 games following a ATS win.
* Over is 38-13 in last 51 games as an underdog.
* Over is 23-8 in last 31 games on grass.
* Over is 22-8 in last 30 games following a S.U. win.
* Over is 19-7 in last 26 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
* Over is 19-7 in last 26 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 38-14 in last 52 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
* Over is 24-9 in last 33 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
* Over is 20-8 in last 28 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
* Over is 35-16 in last 51 games overall.

NFL Betting at WagerWeb.com

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