Wednesday, May 21, 2008

NBA odds: Spurs vs. Lakers


Much like in the East finals, the Western Conference finals pit the two teams most everybody expected to be here when the playoffs began. San Antonio and Los Angeles renew a great playoff rivalry that has been on hiatus since 2004, and the Lakers are 7-point betting favorites (over/under: 196) to win Game 1.

The teams split the regular-season series at 2 (each home team winning twice), but the Lakers won the lone game between the teams after acquiring Pau Gasol.

The Lakers are 6-0 at home in the postseason and winners of 12 straight overall including a 106-85 victory over the Spurs in their next-to-last game of the regular season.

And L.A. is well-rested, having not played since Friday night, while the Spurs are coming off a grueling seven-game series against the Hornets and playing on one day of rest - not to mention the team having to sleep on a grounded plane in New Orleans following Monday's victory.

Thus, the Spurs didn't practice Tuesday.

"We didn't think practice was going to glean a whole lot of improvement, considering everything," Spurs coach Gregg Popovich said.

San Antonio will need more from Tim Duncan than he gave against the Hornets. The Big Fundamental averaged only 15.3 points on 42 percent shooting in that series, but most would say that L.A.'s defense isn't all that great, although Gasol has improved since joining the Lakers. This is one series where L.A. might miss injured big man Andrew Bynum.Spurs swingman Manu Ginobili is averaging 20.0 points, 4.0 rebounds and 4.3 assists in the postseason, while point guard Tony Parker, who was the MVP of the 2007 NBA Finals, leads the Spurs in scoring (23.7 ppg) and assists (6.3 apg). Parker is shooting 50.5 percent from the field, including an impressive 46.2 percent from beyond the arc.

Ginobili came off the bench all season but was inserted as a starter late in the Hornets series.

Obviously the Lakers are led by Kobe Bryant, winner of his first MVP award this season. He leads the Lakers in scoring (33.3 ppg) and assists (6.8 apg) in the playoffs and has grabbed 6.3 rebounds per game and is shooting 49.5 percent from the field. He will be hounded all series by uberpest Bruce Bowen.

Bryant averaged 24.3 points vs. the Spurs this season but also had 17 turnovers in the four regular- season games. Bowen is one of the league's top defenders.

Gasol, meanwhile, is averaging 20.0 points, 8.6 rebounds and 4.5 assists in the postseason. He is shooting 56.8 percent from the field.

After running up and down with Denver, and standing up to Utah's physicality, the Lakers now get the stinginess of the Spurs.

"They're one of the best defensive teams our league has seen in a long time," point guard Derek Fisher said.

Betting trends: Spurs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games. ... Lakers are 9-0-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win. ... Lakers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. ... Lakers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. ... Over is 4-1 in Lakers last 5 overall. ... Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. ... Over is 12-5 in the last 17 meetings in Los Angeles.

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