Monday, May 12, 2008

NBA odds: Hornets vs. Spurs, Game 4


The San Antonio Spurs showed the heart of a champion (cliché, I know) in beating the New Orleans Hornets in Game 3, but the reigning NBA champs need to do it again in Sunday night's Game 4 to really make this Western Conference semifinal a series.

San Antonio is a 6-point betting favorite at home for Game 4 with an over/under of 187.5 on WagerWeb.com.

The Spurs seemed resigned to letting Chris Paul (and, to a lesser extent, David West) get his and clamp down on the other Hornets on Thursday. Taking the 15-for-25 shooting performance from Paul and the 10-19 showing from West out of the equation, the rest of the Hornets combined to connect on only 41 percent from the field.

"We feel that Chris is going to score," Spurs forward Kurt Thomas said. "But if we can control everyone else, I think it definitely plays to our benefit."

Offense worked for the defense-oriented Spurs in Game 3. They scored 110 points after getting just 82 and 84 in the first two games.

Point guard Tony Parker countered Paul's 35 points and nine assists with 31 points and 11 assists. Manu Ginobili added another 31 points as the two repeatedly scored in the paint.

"Tony was aggressive," Spurs coach Gregg Popovich said after Game 3. "He wasn't aggressive at all in Game 2. I probably had him screwed up trying to get him to make perfect decisions. We know that he's better when he's aggressive and trying to score. That's the approach he took (Thursday), and I thought he did it really well."The Spurs made some defensive adjustments for Game 3, including putting Parker (in place of Bruce Bowen) on Paul. Instead of Michael Finley guarding Peja Stojakovic, it was Bowen's turn. That matchup was one-sided, as Bowen nearly took Stojakovic (47 total points in the first two games) out of the mix - 2-for-7, 8 points. Bowen's relentless defense on Peja put tremendous pressure on Paul and West to carry too much of the load on offense.

In addition, the Spurs started Ginobili over Finley. That seemed to spur the Spurs' outside attack. All told, they were 11-for-25 from beyond the arc, with Bowen (4), Finley (3) and Ginobili (3) leading the way.

"Chris is going to score regardless. He's got the ball in his hands every single time. Every single play it's Chris Paul," said Parker. "So we decided to put Bruce on Peja and at least hold somebody down, because Peja was killing us."

With Peja misfiring, the Hornets were ineffective from behind the 3-point arc, missing 11 of 13 attempts.

"We talked about the possibility of them putting Bowen on me before the game, because they tried to stop Paul (in the first two games) and they didn't have any answers," Stojakovic said. "We didn't have good ball movement in Game 3, and they were able to take some things away."

But perhaps the most familiar aspect of the Spurs' game Thursday was their ability to surge to a big lead in the second half after keeping the game close but trailing at halftime. The Hornets had outscored the Spurs in five consecutive second halves before Thursday night, when New Orleans was outscored 56-43 and outshot 51.3 percent to 44.4 percent.

Betting trends: Hornets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. . Hornets are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. . Spurs are 15-3-2 ATS in their last 20 playoff games as a favorite. . Spurs are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. . Over is 10-1-1 in Hornets last 12 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. . Over is 8-2-1 in Spurs last 11 overall. . Home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

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