Wednesday, May 14, 2008

NBA odds: Spurs vs. Hornets


After consecutive blowout losses in San Antonio, the New Orleans Hornets return to the comforts of home for Game 5 on Tuesday night with their Western Conference semifinal tied at 2.

"We're not in panic mode," Hornets guard Chris Paul said. "We're not down 3-0. It's 2-2. When we won the first two games, it was all knocking the Spurs. Now we lost two, and it's like: 'What do they do? They're playing against the champs.' "

New Orleans is a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 186.5 on WagerWeb.com for Game 5.

You have to like New Orleans as a bettor tonight, as entering Tuesday the home team has won 15 of 16 NBA conference semifinal games. The lone setback was Orlando's 90-89 loss to Detroit on Saturday.

The Hornets are 5-0 in the playoffs at the New Orleans Arena and haven't lost a playoff game in New Orleans since 2003. New Orleans has lost one home game since the beginning of March. In addition, the Hornets beat the Spurs at New Orleans Arena by a combined 37 points in Games 1 and 2.

"We are in a different situation now, but we have to try to do it the same way," Spurs guard Manu Ginobili said. "We have to approach Game 5 the same way we approached Game 3 and 4."

The difference in the past two games has been the Spurs' defensive intensity and the play of Tim Duncan.

After playing each of the games in New Orleans with a high fever, Duncan was stellar in Game 4, scoring a team-leading 22 points, hauling in 15 rebounds and blocking four shots.

New Orleans coach Byron Scott said his players showed a "lack of trust" in the defensive game plan Sunday night, sometimes scrambling to the perimeter to guard the threat of an outside shot, only to be burned by one of Tony Parker's driving layups or a pass inside to Duncan.

Above all, the Spurs are defending better than they were in New Orleans, where the Hornets shot 49.1 percent and averaged 101.5 points.The Spurs really clamped down on Peja Stojakovic and David West in San Antonio, limiting them to 16 combined points in Game 4, the fewest the duo had produced in a game this season.

Collectively, Stojakovic and West scored an average of 23.5 points and shot 38 percent from the field in the two losses at San Antonio after averaging 43.5 combined points and 61.5 percent shooting in the series' first two contests.

When the duo combines for 40 or more points this season, the Hornets are 25-5.

Perhaps the most glaring statistic from Stojakovic's line Sunday was one 3-point attempt. Hounded much of the game by defensive specialist Bruce Bowen, Stojakovic shot 3-of-9 from the field. The NBA's best free-throw shooter did not make it to the line.

"They're really locked into Peja," Paul said. "We've just got to keep trying to get him going as much as possible."

San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich said he did not expect the Hornets to look as flat as they did Sunday now that they're back in New Orleans.

"Every game in the playoffs is difficult and for the most part, more difficult on the road than at home, that's for sure," Popovich said. "We're going to have to play a really, really good game to come away with a win" in New Orleans.

Betting trends: Spurs are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5. ... Spurs are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games. ... Hornets are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 0.5- .5. ... Hornets are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. ... Over is 8-2-1 in Spurs' last 11 playoff games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5. ... Over is 5-0-2 in Hornets' last 7 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5. ... Home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. ... Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

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