For instance, a dozen contenders won 14 key preps from February through April. The only two-time winners, Pyro and Colonel John, haven’t posted a triple-digit figure this year.
Pyro ran a dismal 10th in the Blue Grass on Keeneland’s Polytrack. The son of Pulpit and six other colts finished fifth or worse in their final prep. The last horse to triumph at Churchill Downs after running that poorly or worse in the final prep was Iron Liege, fifth in ’57.
Colonel John is yet to run on the dirt. Nearly half of the prospective field had one or more preps on synthetic surfaces.
So what’s a handicapper to do? One key to success just might lie in the speed figures posted in preps regardless of surfaces.
I believe Derby history sheds some light on the subject. In the last 16 years, only two winners failed to post a triple-digit Beyer speed number in any of their final three starts: Sea Hero in ’93 and Giacomo in ’05. Both recorded the lowest two winning figures during that time span.From ’92 through ’07, a dozen Derby champs earned or matched the highest speed figure in one of their final two preps. The longest streak ran from ’96 through ’04 when several of the top Beyers were posted: Silver Charm, 115 in ’97; Monarchos, 116 in ’01; and War Emblem, 114 in ’02.
This year’s speed figures in preps among the expected 20 Derby starters appear lower than usual.
Only five have cracked the triple-digit mark, including Big Black Jack, who posted the highest Beyer, 109, but that was winning at six furlongs in the Sunshine Millions Dash at Santa Anita on Jan. 26. Since then he averaged 94 running second and third in routes on the cushion track.
Big Brown ran 106 Beyers in both his preps and is the likely post-time favorite on Saturday. The son of Boundary, among a half-dozen horses with only two preps, likes to win on the front end. He ran the Florida Derby’s 1 1/8 miles in 1:48 on March 31 winning by five lengths at Gulfstream Park.
Recapturetheglory, who posted a 102 Beyer winning the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne, also led at every call. The son of Cherokee Run ran the 1 1/8 miles in 1:49.
Gayego recorded a 103 Beyer winning the Arkansas Derby on April 12, covering the 1 1/8 miles at Oaklawn Park in 1:49 3/5. The son of Gilded Time ran a 102 taking the San Pedro on Jan. 20, but that was at six furlongs at Santa Anita.
The only other triple-digit Beyer was 102 by Z Fortune, runner-up in the Arkansas Derby, who was just three-quarters of a length behind Gayego. The son of Siphon finished second to Pyro in the Blue Grass on April 12.
Pyro recorded 105 and 100 Beyers last year chasing War Pass in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Champagne Stakes, respectively. War Pass posted 113 and 103 Beyers, respectively, in those races at Monmouth and Belmont, but was injured after failing to win two preps this year.
Eight Belles, a filly that will be entered in the Derby and Kentucky Oaks, posted the only other triple-digit Beyer. Whether she runs against the boys, her interests say, depends on Wednesday’s draw.
The daughter of Unbridled’s Song put up a 100 speed figure in the first of four victories against fillies in a Fair Grounds allowance contest last year. Then she reeled off three consecutives wins in stakes this year.
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