It's often said a horse can't win the Kentucky Derby from the far outside post, but Big Brown will test that theory Saturday.
Undefeated Big Brown, the 3-1 favorite, will start from No. 20. Only one Kentucky Derby winner, Clyde Van Dusen in 1929, came from there. Only 11 Derbys since then had a field of at least 20, but only one horse (Caveat, third in 1983) finished in the money.
But the post position statistic is misleading because it wasn't until the last 16 years that fields of 18 or more became the norm. During that span, two horses - Thunder Gulch in 1995 and Charismatic in 1999 – came from post 16 to win, but neither was on the outside.
Said Big Brown co-owner Michael Iavarone, who could have chosen posts 1, 2, 18 or 19 instead of 20: "At least with 20 all the speed will be inside of us. It's not the most enviable position, but it's the best of a bad situation."
Big Brown has won his three races by a combined 19 lengths, including a five-length Florida Derby victory at Gulfstream Park on March 29. He overcame post 12 in that race. Since Gulfstream Park was reconfigured in 2005, only one other horse has won a 1 1/8-mile race from post 10 or outward and that was Barbaro, who came from post 10 to win the 2006 Florida Derby and went on to win the Kentucky Derby.
Big Brown doesn't have much history on his side, though. The winner of a maiden turf race last summer before victories in an allowance race and the Florida Derby will seek to become the first horse since 1915 (Regret) to win the Derby with just three prior starts.
Churchill Downs linemaker Mike Battaglia installed Big Brown as the 3-1 morning-line favorite, but the outside post necessitated Battaglia to make changes."I moved Colonel John at second choice from 5-1 to 4-1 and Pyro from 8-1 to 6-1," Battaglia said.
Colonel John will break from the No. 10 post, while Pyro will occupy the No. 9 spot.
"Everybody's talking Colonel John, but he's got to run on a dirt track (for the first time), even though he's breezed good and all. Everybody's talking about that, which is fine with me. But his numbers (speed figures) don't come close to ours. I watched him run and I've watched Big Brown run, and it looks like two different class of horses to me. But I'm biased," said Big Brown trainer Richard Dutrow Jr., assessing the chances of the Santa Anita Derby winner against his horse.
Gayego, whose connections had the 20th and last pick, will break from the No. 19 post, from which no horse has won the Derby.
Trainer Michael Matz, who had the first post selection, took the No. 8 for Visionaire. Matz selected the same post in 2006 for Barbaro, who captured the Derby.
Post, Horse Trainer Jockey Odds
1. Cool Coal Man Nick Zito Julien Leparoux 20-1
2. Tale of Ekati Barclay Tagg Eibar Coa 15-1
3. Anak Nakal Nick Zito Rafael Bejarano 30-1
4. Court Vision Bill Mott Garrett Gomez 20-1
5. Eight Belles Larry Jones Gabriel Saez 15-1
6. Z Fortune Steve Asmussen Robby Albarado 15-1
7. Big Truck Barclay Tagg Javier Castellano 50-1
8. Visionaire Michael Matz Jose Lezcano 20-1
9. Pyro Steve Asmussen Shaun Bridgmohan 6-1
10. Colonel John Eoin Harty Corey Nakatani 4-1
11. Z Humor Bill Mott Rene Douglas 30-1
12. Smooth Air Bennie Stutts Jr. Manoel Cruz 20-1
13. Bob Black Jack James Kasparoff Richard Migliore 20-1
14. Monba Todd Pletcher Ramon Dominguez 15-1
15. Adriano Graham Motion Edgar Prado 30-1
16. Denis of Cork David Carroll Calvin Borel 20-1
17. Cowboy Cal Todd Pletcher John Velazquez 20-1
18. Recapturetheglory Louie Roussel III E.T. Baird 20-1
19. Gayego Paulo Lobo Mike Smith 15-1
20. Big Brown Rick Dutrow Jr. Kent Desormeaux 3-
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