Tuesday, May 6, 2008

NBA odds: Spurs vs. Hornets


It wasn't too surprising to see the New Orleans Hornets beat the San Antonio Spurs in Game 1, but the final score and Tim Duncan's output both would have to qualify as surprises.

The reigning NBA champs will have to get the Big Fundamental back on track for tonight's Game 2 - New Orleans is a 2.5-point betting favorite (over/under: 182) on WagerWeb.com - or face a big hole in their quest to repeat.

On Saturday night, the Hornets limited Duncan to five points, tying a career playoff low, on 1-for-9 shooting (1-for-6 in the first half, 0-for-3 in the second half). He averaged 24.8 points and 13.8 rebounds in the first five playoff games.

"Things just didn't go my way," said Duncan. "They did a great job. ... I played badly, so credit to them."

Duncan had only one game worse than that this season - in December against Portland, but he played only 10 minutes after being injured.With Duncan doubled every time he touched the ball in the low post, the Spurs offense depended entirely on Tony Parker's drives in a broken field, Manu Ginobili's lefty slices and 3-point shooting, and somebody knocking down perimeter shots.

That didn't happen with enough frequency.

"They took away our inside game. Timmy had a rough night," Parker said. "We need to do a better job to get him the ball and try to get him some shots, basically. New Orleans did a good job to take that away from us. That's not Timmy."

Hornets center Tyson Chandler was the main defensive player on Duncan. Chandler's activity - with seven of his first 15 rebounds in the first four minutes – and ability to run the floor makes for a difficult pairing for Duncan. And Chandler's length makes him a tough defender. Backup Melvin Ely also contributed nearly 13 minutes on Duncan - he knows the Spurs well from his time playing in San Antonio.

"We just did a pretty good job of coming down and double-teaming him," Hornets coach Byron Scott said. "Tim is a very unselfish superstar. He's going to take what the defense gives you. We didn't really want to give him many good looks or open looks. I thought Tyson did a really good job of fighting him. I thought Mel came in and did a real good job."

The Spurs, meanwhile, need to find a defensive answer for Hornets forward David West, who scored 30 points in Game 1. He has averaged 30.3 points in the Hornets' three victories against San Antonio this season, scoring 32 and 29 in two regular-season victories. He scored 15 and 16 in the Hornets' two losses to the defending NBA champions.

West's ability to score on mid-range jumpers, post-up moves and drives to the hoop was what made him a first-time All-Star this season, and was the difference in the series opener.

"Whatever we might do, I probably wouldn't discuss publicly," Popovich said of his Game 2 adjustments. "But we definitely want to play for 48 minutes instead of 24."

The Hornets scored 25 points off turnovers and had 21 second-chance points in Game 1.

Betting trends: Over is 6-2-1 in Spurs' last 9 overall. ... Under is 16-6-1 in Spurs' last 23 vs. Southwest Division. .. Hornets are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 home games. ... Hornets are 42-20-1 ATS in their last 63 games overall.

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