Wednesday, May 21, 2008

NBA odds: Pistons vs. Celtics


The Eastern Conference finals that most everyone wanted - and expected - tips off Tuesday night in Boston when the Celtics host the Pistons, with Detroit a 4.5-point betting underdog (over/under: 174) on WagerWeb.com for Game 1.

The Pistons are also +110 underdogs on the series price at WagerWeb.com, with the Celtics at -140.

The main storyline heading into Game 1 is that Detroit has had six days off after dispatching Orlando, while Boston had a second consecutive seven-game series and played just Sunday.

However, Ray Allen says: "I would rather have the rhythm" of regular competition than extra rest, "because (with) the rhythm you don't have to guess from one day to the next" how you'll play."

Allen needs something: He averaged only 9.3 points on 32.8 percent shooting in the series against the Cavs, far below his regular-season performance.

Still, Detroit coach Flip Saunders has seen enough of Allen to know he is too good a shooter to struggle much longer.

"He can go out and get a game where he's going to go get six out of seven 3s," Saunders said. "So that's why you can't say, 'Well, I'm just not going to guard him.' "

In the regular season, the Pistons shot 38.6 percent against the Celtics, one of the top two defensive teams in the league. The other is Detroit, and the Pistons held the Celtics to an average of 89 points in their three regular-season games.

"We can't shoot 39 percent," Saunders said, "and expect to win or win on the road."The main focus will be on Boston's Big Three (Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Allen) and whether it can overtake a balanced Detroit squad that has been playing together longer and boasts one of the league's better cores (Chauncey Billups, Richard Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince, Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess).

Yet a key could be Pistons backup point guard Rodney Stuckey. The rookie guard came up big in the Magic series, averaging 9.8 points and 3.4 assists. He got plenty of playing time with Billups (sore hamstring) missing the final two games of the series.

However, Billups says he is 100 percent healthy with all the time off, and he has dominated Boston starter Rajon Rondo during the regular season. He'll frequently look to post up the smaller Rondo. Billups not only is a clutch player, he also wears down the opposition with his physical play.

The Celtics won the season series 2-1, winning the last two games, one at home and one at Auburn Hills. Boston is 8-0 at home in the playoffs, but the Pistons have been the best team in the playoffs on the road, going 3-2.

The last two times the Pistons opened the Eastern Conference finals on the road (in 2004 and 2005), they won and advanced to the NBA Finals. The Pistons are 6-13 on the road against Boston in the playoffs. Their last postseason road win against the Celtics (86-75) came May 7, 1991.

Betting trends: Pistons are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 Conference Finals games. ... Pistons are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 3 or more days rest. ... Celtics are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. ... Celtics are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. ... Under is 10-2 in Pistons' last 12 road games. ... Road team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. ... Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

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