Tuesday, May 6, 2008

MLB odds: Red Sox vs. Tigers


Boston and Detroit begin a four-game series on Monday night at Comerica Park in what will be the teams' last series of the season, although it's very possibly a playoff preview - the teams are nearly even on the WagerWeb.com money line, with an over/under of 9 runs for Game 1.

And the Tigers apparently will have a different look tonight. After the Minnesota Twins swept Detroit over the weekend, Manager Jim Leyland promised a big offensive shakeup.

He just wouldn't say how he would change one of baseball's most underperforming lineups. Detroit scored just one run in each of the first two games against the Twins and then scored six runs in the top of the first Sunday before losing 7-6.

"I'm not talking about that. There will be changes,' Leyland said. "Same pieces, but quite a bit different."

The Tigers have scored eight or more runs in eight games, winning all of them, but they've been held to three runs or fewer far more often. In those low-scoring situations, they're 0-14.

Whatever lineup Leyland sends out Monday night, it will be facing one of the American League's better pitchers so far this season.

Boston's Daisuke Matsuzaka (4-0, 2.52 ERA) allowed two hits in seven scoreless innings against Toronto in his last start Wednesday. It was his first start since missing a scheduled April 23 appearance because of
flu-like symptoms.He walked two and struck out four in his longest start of the year. The two hits allowed were the fewest he had ever given up in a start lasting at least seven innings. He is 2-1 with a 3.05 ERA against the Tigers, a team he beat April 8 with 6 2/3 scoreless innings. He is 0-1 in one start at Comerica Park, yielding six earned runs in five innings in a start there last season. In their last six games, Red Sox starters are 3-3 - with three straight wins - with a 1.92 ERA.

Dice-K will be opposed by Detroit's Jeremy Bonderman.

Bonderman (2-2, 3.86 ERA) lost to the Red Sox at Fenway Park on April 9, giving up five hits and two runs (one earned) in five innings. That dropped his lifetime record against the Sox to 4-4 - but 3-1 at home. He beat the Yankees in New York in his last start, giving up five hits and two runs in 7 2/3 innings.

The Tigers (14-18) dropped two of three vs. Boston in heir earlier series at Fenway Park.

Because of Detroit's dangerous lineup, Boston has recalled right-handed reliever Craig Hansen from Triple-A.

"We took stock of where we were and if there's a bad injury, we can finish the game. But we think having an extra pitcher, especially against the Tigers, especially with their right-handed hitters, we think it can help us win games more than having a hitter on the bench," manager Terry Francona said.

A big question for Boston is whether designated hitter David Ortiz will play tonight. He was scratched from Sunday's lineup due to knee soreness. Ortiz is 8-for-17 with four RBIs in his last four games to boost his average from .172 to .216.

Francona said Ortiz had difficulty loosening the knee and the team took a conservative approach, given the cold, wet climate.

"It's going to be a long year," Francona said.

Betting trends: Under is 18-6-1 in Boston's last 25 Monday games. ... Red Sox are 11-1 in Matsuzaka's last 12 starts. ... Tigers are 6-2 in their last 8 home games. ... Over is 11-5-2 in Tigers' last 18 Monday games. ... Under is 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings. ... Red Sox are 29-14 in the last 43 meetings.

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