After routing Minnesota and Indiana last week, it appears that Michigan State’s mini-funk is over, although they will be tested tonight at unranked Michigan in the teams’ only scheduled meeting of the season.
The Spartans are 4-point favorites on WagerWeb.com.
There are two main reasons why this could be a Wolverine upset. The first is that MSU second-leading scorer Raymar Morgan, who didn’t play at all last week and hasn’t been a factor in about a month, is not expected to play again because of his lingering illness, which is now being called mono.
“It’s probably 97 (percent Morgan’s not playing) to 3,” MSU coach Tom Izzo said. “Even as the strong Greek god he is, his conditioning (has been affected).”
Tonight’s game is MSU’s only one this week, so Izzo is hoping Morgan can be back in the lineup Feb. 17 in a potentially important matchup at Purdue.
The second reason why MSU is on upset alert is that it has struggled in Ann Arbor lately. The Spartans haven’t won at Crisler since a 64-49 triumph on Feb. 12, 2005, and U-M has been competitive against ranked teams this season, not to mention 12-2 at home this year..
Yet MSU has won 15 of the past 18 in the series and is 6-0 in true road games this season, including 5-0 in the Big Ten. In those five road Big Ten wins, the Spartans are averaging 74.8 points, led by Kalin Lucas at 20.0 ppg. And they are out-rebounding opponents by a +16.2 margin. The Spartans are also committing just 12.6 turnovers per game.
In the last 12 games, Lucas is averaging 17.9 points and shooting shooting 41.2 percent from the field, 39.5 percent from 3-point range and 86.1 percent from the foul line. He and Ohio State’s Evan Turner are probably the two leading candidates for Big Ten Player of the Year.
The Wolverines have lost six of eight games, including at No. 1 Connecticut on Saturday. Michigan freshman Stu Douglass had 20 points and went 6-for-8 from 3-point range against UConn, while leading scorer Manny Harris added 15 for the Wolverines, who led by one at halftime.
The Wolverines lead the Big Ten with 8.63 made 3-point field goals per game, including eight games where they have made 10 or more. They also lead the conference in free throw shooting.
WagerWeb.com Game Trends
* Spartans are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
* Spartans are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
* Spartans are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big Ten.
* Spartans are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
* Spartans are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.
* Spartans are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
* Spartans are 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 road games following three or more consecutive home games.
* Spartans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Tuesday games.
* Wolverines are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.
* Wolverines are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 Tuesday games.
* Wolverines are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. Big Ten.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
NCAA Basketball Betting at WagerWeb.com
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