Monday, June 2, 2008

MLB odds: Pirates at Reds


The Cincinnati Reds have had three strong rookie performers this year already in first baseman Joey Votto and pitchers Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto, but none came with the hype that surrounded uber-prospect Jay Bruce on Tuesday night.

Bruce, the 2007 Baseball America Minor League Player of the Year, was 3-for-3 with two walks, a steal and two RBIs in the Reds' win over the Pirates. Oh, and he got a standing ovation (and a chorus of "Bruuuuccce") every time he came to bat.

"It's so much the same as the minors," said Bruce, who was batting .364 with 10 home runs and 37 RBIs in 49 games at Triple-A Louisville. "They've just got bigger stands, more fans and better uniforms."

ESPN's Peter Gammons, on "Baseball Tonight," said Bruce appears to be a carbon copy of former NL MVP Larry Walker - even as Reds manager Dusty Baker had begged fans and pundits not to "put any labels on him. No comparisons. Just let him play."

Bruce, 21, and the team's first-round pick in 2005, apparently will start in center field most every day for the Reds after Corey Patterson's average had sunk to the Mendoza line, although Ryan Freel will see a bit of time in center. Bruce hit second on Tuesday night, with Baker suggesting that's where he may stay for time being, even though he batted mostly No. 3 in the minors.

"The third spot right now belongs to Junior (Griffey). The fourth spot belongs to (Brandon) Phillips," Baker said. "The fifth spot belongs to (Adam) Dunn. Junior has 20 years of batting third. Just bide your time and learn everything. It will work out sooner or later."Bruce is part of that loaded '05 MLB draft class, with players such as Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun and Troy Tulowitzki all picked ahead of Bruce, who went No. 12 overall.

"He's going to be our superstar for years to come," says Reds CEO Bob Castellini.

The Reds have won three of four after Tuesday's 9-6 victory. Bruce and scalding-hot Adam Dunn – eight homers in the past 12 games - will face Pittsburgh struggling starter Tom Gorzelanny (4.4, 6.31 ERA) tonight in Game 2 of the series, with Cincy opening as the -129 money line betting favorite on WagerWeb.com, with an over/under of 9 (which looks like a great bet if you see the trends below).

Gorzelanny has been on his game lately despite that big ERA, having given up two runs or less in three of his last four starts. Gorzelanny beat the Reds on April 13, giving up one run and four hits while walking four in 6 1-3 innings in a 9-1 Pirates victory. He is 2-1 with a 4.91 ERA in three career starts vs. Cincinnati.

The Reds start Bronson Arroyo (3-4, 5.68 ERA), who is 2-0 with a 2.05 ERA in his last four starts. The right-hander, though, is 1-3 with a 4.50 ERA in six starts against the Pirates. He did not get a decision in his only outing against them this season, allowing three runs -- two earned -- and six hits in five innings as the Reds lost 4-3 on April 12.

Betting trends: Pirates are 1-6 in Gorzelanny's last 7 starts as a road underdog. . Pirates are 9-3 in their last 12 games following a loss. . Reds are 8-0 in their last 8 home games. . Reds are 3-13 in Arroyo's last 16 starts vs. a team with a losing record. . Over is 10-1 in Gorzelanny's last 11 starts as a road underdog. . Over is 4-1 in Arroyo's last 5 starts. . Over is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings in Cincinnati.

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