Saturday, October 11, 2008

Patriots (3-1) vs. Chargers (2-3)


Well, this New England-San Diego rematch of the AFC title game has lost a little luster hasn’t it?

There’s no Tom Brady, no Shawne Merriman. Neither team is even in first place, but this Sunday night game still has the feel of a heavyweight fight. The Pats, in fact, are treating it as a playoff game, deciding to stay on the West Coast all week after winning in San Francisco last Sunday.

The host Chargers are 5-point favorites this time around on WagerWeb.com.

First off, let’s look at the injuries, which would seem to favor New England because Chargers starting wide receiver Chris Chambers is doubtful because of a sprained left ankle. Coach Norv Turner said Chambers’ availability would be a game-time decision. Five of Chambers’ 11 catches this year have been for TDs.

In addition, Chargers starting outside linebacker Jyles Tucker, Merriman’s replacement, also is listed as doubtful and said he would test his injured hamstring before Sunday’s game. The Pats, meanwhile, are pretty healthy. New England has listed LB Eric Alexander (hamstring), RB LaMont Jordan (calf) and WR Kelley Washington (ankle) as doubtful for Sunday, and none of them are huge contributors. RB Laurence Maroney (shoulder) and CB Lewis Sanders (hamstring) are questionable but likely to play.

LaDainian Tomlinson said this week the Chargers “can’t afford to go to 2-4.”

The numbers back that up. Since the current playoff format began in 1990, 12 of the 132 teams that started 2-4 have gone on to make the postseason (9.1 percent). Yet 41 of the 99 teams that started the season 3-3 since ‘90 have advanced to the postseason (41.4 percent). At least one 3-3 team has advanced to the playoffs in all but one season since ‘90, and at least two 3-3 teams have gone on to the postseason in all but three seasons.

San Diego needs its defense to step up Sunday. That unit ranks No. 20 or below in such critical areas as yards allowed per game and per play; passing yards per game; first downs per game. Opponents have a league-high TD passes. And of the 129 points the Chargers have been hit with, 86 were scored in the first half. In addition, the Chargers allowed a season-high 167 rushing yards in last week’s loss in Miami.

San Diego’s offense has been good, averaging 29.6 points to rank fourth in the league, but the Chargers have lost three games by a total of 10 points. Quarterback Phillip Rivers is second in the AFC with 11 touchdown passes, but he’s struggled recently. Over the past two games, Rivers has completed less than 51 percent of his throws for a total of 339 yards with two TDs and two interceptions while getting sacked six times. Rivers has completed 11 passes of 20 or more yards, but the Chargers have allowed eight.

The Chargers have won all five of their home night games and are 16-2 overall at home with Rivers as quarterback. They also won both games last season in their powder blue jerseys, which they will be wearing Sunday. But New England has won 12 regular-season road games in a row.

New England has won 13 of the past 15 meetings, including that 21-21 victory in last year’s AFC Championship Game.

NFL Betting at WagerWeb.com

2 comments:

Sports Traveler said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Sports Traveler said...

They had a nice game. Next time, watching them live would be fantastic.

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