Saturday, April 5, 2008

March Madness odds: Heels' unheralded Ellington


2008 ncaa tournament bracket
2008 ncaa tournament schedule
NCAA tournament bracket

Here's what you probably know about North Carolina heading into its Final Four matchup with Kansas on Saturday night: You know about Tyler Hansbrough. "Psycho T" is the likely national player of the year and often cover boy on Sports Illustrated and other magazines.

You know about Ty Lawson. The Heels were without their floor leader for a decent stretch of the late season after he injured his ankle against FSU. UNC was very good without him but has been unstoppable with him back in the lineup.

You also know about Roy Williams, and how he left Kansas for the UNC job - and how some Jayhawk fans still can't forget.

What you may not know is the pivotal player for the Heels on Saturday night may well be sophomore guard Wayne Ellington.

When Hansbrough gets double-teamed, which he certainly will often, his first kick-out option is Ellington. If Ellington, a second-team All-ACC selection, gets hot shooting the ball, he can really fill it up quickly.

One of the best pure shooters in the country, he has a terrific mid-range jumper and an outstanding stroke. He has proven that he can knock down clutch shots.

"I just feel really confident; I always feel like the ball's going to go in," he said of scoring in the clutch. "And I don't really feel the pressure, I just shoot it like it's another shot."

Ellington has become a multidimensional threat, able to create shots for himself and sometimes his teammates.

He averages 16.6 points, shooting 47.1 percent from the field and 41.4 from the 3-point line. He has totaled 62 points in the four NCAA tournament games.

"He's come on like gang-busters," his father, Wayne Sr., says.

ESPN analyst and former UCLA coach Steve Lavin compares Ellington to Ray Allen, who starred at Connecticut in the mid-1990s.

"Ellington, in similar fashion to Ray Allen, can get the hot hand and beat you in so many ways, from distance, from the mid-range pull-up and quickness to get to the rim," Lavin says.Ellington is motivated by a loss. He had a great look at a potential game-winner that would have sent North Carolina to the Final Four a year ago. With just 4 seconds left in the East Regional final against Georgetown, Ellington was wide open on the right wing
at the Meadowlands. He did not hesitate. He shot with confidence.

"I stepped into it," Ellington said that day. "I thought it was going in like all my shots. It felt good."

It hit the back iron, and Georgetown dominated the overtime. Ellington shot 2-for-11.

So he dedicated himself like no other offseason.

After Ellington scored 24 points to lead North Carolina in the ACC final, Clemson's K.C. Rivers explained how difficult it is to guard him.

"If you are going to take the 3 away, he's still got the midrange," Rivers said. "If you take both away, he's still got the drive. It's kind of hard to pick what you're going to take away from him, because he just had it clicking on all aspects."

Ellington will be matched up against KU's Mario Chalmers, who is a terrific defensive player and could make life difficult for Ellington. Chalmers no doubt will have help from Brandon Rush as well.

And Williams says Ellington, 6-foot-4, 200 pounds, will also hold his own defensively against KU's deep group of scorers.

"As a defensive player now], he's getting pretty doggone good and he's going to get a lot better," Williams said. "And when I talked to him about that somebody [asked] if he could have done those things last year, he said, 'Oh no, not on the defensive end of the floor.' And it just jumps out at you. "

UNC is a 3-point betting favorite, with an over/under of 159, for Saturday's game on WagerWeb.com.

NHL odds: Lightning at Capitals


You know the NHL wants to see superstar Alex Ovechkin in the playoffs, but the Washington Capitals have some work to do to make that a reality.

Washington enters tonight's game against Tampa Bay one point out of the eighth and final playoff spot (currently held by the Flyers) in the East but also just two points behind the Carolina Hurricanes for the Southeast Division lead. Winning the division would be worth the No. 3 spot in the East playoffs.

However, the Caps must win out to win the division and hope Carolina loses its finale. The Hurricanes would win a points tiebreaker by virtue of having more wins.

The good news for the Caps, who are huge -310 money line favorites tonight on WagerWeb.com (over/under: 5 goals) is they are playing their best hockey of the year, thanks mainly to goalie Cristobal Huet (and, of course, Ovechkin).

Huet split time with fellow netminder Olaf Kolzig when Huet first arrived in a trade from Montreal, but he is now the undisputed No. 1 as he 9-2 with a 1.75 goals-against average and a .933 save percentage - Vezina Trophy-caliber numbers over the course of a full season - since joining the Caps.

"I didn't know what to expect really," Huet said. "From Day 1, for me it was a fresh start. It was like a mini-season for me. Olie [Kolzig] played well even before the trade, and I just wanted to play well when asked to."

Huet has won seven straight starts, part of the Caps' run of nine victories in 10 contests. The Caps have won five in a row, their first five-game winning streak since March 3-11, 2001.

"We have two more games that are going to be tough to win. Not everything is in our hands, yet," Huet said. "We just have to do our job and continue playing the way we did the last two weeks."Ovechkin, meanwhile, has a league-leading 63 goals and 110 points. He was named the NHL's top star for March. He led all scorers with 26 points (14 goals, 12 assists) and recorded a plus-17 rating in 14 games last month.

Ovechkin's 63 goals tie the NHL record for most goals by a left wing in a single season, established by Luc Robitaille with Los Angeles in 1992-93.

Washington and Tampa Bay played just a week ago, A week Washington prevailing 4-3 on Tomas Fleischmann's overtime goal. The Caps have taken each of their last four meetings with the Lightning, each by a single goal. They are 5-2-0 overall this year against Tampa.

The Lightning are a league-worst 11-22-6 record on the road and have been outscored 21-10 during a four-game skid. They are 1-8-2 in their last 11 away from home. The Capitals have won four straight games at Verizon Center, outscoring the opposition by a combined total of 12-5.

Ovechkin has three goals and three assists in seven games this season against the Lightning, but hasn't scored a goal in any of the last four meetings.

Betting trends: Lightning are 38-42 overall ATS. ... TB is 3-12 in their last 15 vs. Southeast Division foes. ... TB is 2-6 in its last 8 vs. Eastern Conference. ... TB is 2-6 in its last 8 overall. ... Capitals are 46-34 ATS overall. ... Under is 16-5 in Caps' last 21 games following a win. ... Under is 13-5 in Caps' last 18 overall. ... Caps are 11-28 in their last 39 Thursday games. ... Over is 11-4 in the last 15 Lightning-Capitals meetings.

The last word: The Bolts have mailed it in, and the Caps need this. Seems too easy. The goals line is 1.5, and I'd give that in a heartbeat.

MLB odds: Mets minus Pedro


For those of you that bet the under on the New York Mets' season win total on WagerWeb.com, well, you might be feeling pretty good right now.

That's because New York will be without No. 2 starter Pedro Martinez for at least 4-6 weeks with a strained hamstring suffered Tuesday against the Marlins.

Martinez has a "mild" left hamstring strain, but the team's prognosis is likely overly generous. Martinez, at 36, is not a quick healer and is likely to be out much longer.

"We're going to miss him," manager Willie Randolph said. "I really feel bad for him more than anything. The players will pick each other up, but I'm sure it's real disappointing for Pedro."

Martinez had been scheduled to next face the Phillies in the final Shea home opener on Tuesday, but Oliver Perez is expected to move up and take that start, still on an extra day's rest. John Maine and now Mike Pelfrey would presumably also face Philadelphia, since the Mets can get away with four starters until an April 11-13 series against Milwaukee.

"It's early. They're strong. Coming out of spring training, they're not fatigued," Randolph said, referring to a brief four-man rotation. "That's easy."

How shocking is this really, however? Martinez has only 27 wins to show for the first three seasons of his four-year, $53-million deal because of time missed with injuries, so this is something they are used to.

"It's an unfortunate loss," John Maine said before the game. "Everyone knows what Pedro can do, but we've been doing this for the last couple of years. That means that me, Ollie [Perez] and [Mike] Pelfrey can step up a little more."

One report had the Mets possibly signing Claudio Vargas, who released by the Brewers last month, and/or the Rangers' Robinson Tejeda, recently designated for assignment.Orlando Hernandez, who will make his first rehab start today for Class-A St. Lucie, is not eligible to come off the disabled list until April 13.

The Mets filled Martinez's roster spot by purchasing the contract of pitcher Nelson Figueroa from Triple-A New Orleans.

"You can't feel sorry for yourself," Mets third baseman David Wright said. "When somebody goes down in the lineup the hitters rally around one another and pick up the slack. I expect the same from the pitchers."

The Mets are next in action Friday in Atlanta, with John Maine scheduled to face Tim Hudson. Bet on the game at WagerWeb.com.

MARINERS LOSE CLOSER: Seattle All-Star closer J.J. Putz went on the 15-day disabled list Wednesday with a ribcage injury.

Mariners manager John McLaren said that no replacement closer would be designated. Rather, the team will go with a "closer by committee" system until Putz's return.

The primary ninth-inning men figure to be Eric O'Flaherty, Mark Lowe and Sean Green. McLaren said if one of those pitchers showed he could handle the closing job, he would be inclined to stick with him.

Putz, who converted 40 of 42 save opportunities last season, blew one Tuesday night by allowing a go-ahead home run to Texas' Josh Hamilton in the top of the ninth inning. Putz said he felt pain "like an ice pick stabbing me in the side' on a pitch to the batter before Hamilton. A doctor reading an MRI exam Wednesday morning said Putz had mild inflammation where the cartilage attaches to a rib on his right side.

"When I heard what it was, it was encouraging. It was the best of the bad news,' said Putz, who was still in pain on Wednesday when he moved his torso.

Putz blew his first save in his second game of the season, after saving Seattle's win Monday. He didn't blow his first save last year until July 25.

The Mariners were 75-0 last season when leading after eight innings, thanks to Putz, who was 6-1 with a 1.38 ERA in 68 games of 2007, with 82 strikeouts and just 13 walks.

Seattle is off Thursday and opens a three-game series in Baltimore on Friday. Bet on the games at WagerWeb.com.

Wednesday, April 2, 2008

Golf Odds - PGA Tour - Shell Houston Open


The last PGA Tour stop before the Masters will have an Augusta-like feel to it this week at the Shell Houston Open.

First off is the quality of the field: Houston boasts four of the top 10 players in the world rankings, and six of the top 12: Phil Mickelson, Steve Stricker, Adam Scott, K.J. Choi, Geoff Ogilvy and Padraig Harrington.

World No. 1 Tiger Woods is not playing this week, as he rarely does in the few weeks before a major, and No. 3 Ernie Els pulled out due to a virus.

In addition, the folks at Redstone Golf Club are tailoring their course as best they can to look and feel like Augusta next week. The greens are prepared to run at very fast speeds and there are areas around the greens where there is little rough in an attempt to recreate Augusta-like conditions.

This week’s winner qualifies is the final qualifier for the Masters - if he hasn’t already done so.

However, since 1934, only five players have won the week before they earned a green jacket.

Mickelson, in the field this week, was the latest to do so in 2006, when he won the BellSouth Classic. He is joined by Sandy Lyle (1988 Greater Greensboro Open), Art Wall (1959 Azalea Open), Sam Snead (1949 Greater Greensboro Open) and Ralph Guldahl (1939 Greater Greensboro Open).

This is Lefty’s fourth career start at the Shell Houston Open. He missed the cut in his first appearance in 1995, tied for 30th in 1998 and tied for 28th in 2003. He is the favorite on WagerWeb.com at +450.Adam Scott is the defending champion here, capped by a 48-foot putt to get up-and-down on the 18 th and secure the victory. He was the 6th Australian to win the Shell Houston Open and was the youngest champion this tourney had seen since David Duval's win in 1998. He played his final 36 holes at Redstone without a single bogey.

He’s the second-favorite at +500.Players from outside the U.S. have won seven out of the last nine in this event, dating to 1999.

Aussies have won this event on four occasions in the last nine years with Stuart Appleby (+1500 this week) winning twice and Scott and Robert Allenby (+2000) once each. So maybe that bodes well for Geoff Ogilvy (+1000), who is playing this week for the first time since ending Tiger’s win streak at Doral.

Hunter Mahan (+2500) has been playing well of late, and his chances are good to improve on his 5 th place last year and his 11th place in 2006.

Steve Stricker (+1700) is coming off a missed cut in New Orleans but has consecutive top 10s here.

LPGA TOUR: The ladies’ first major of the year is at the Kraft Nabisco Championship, and Lorena Ochoa is the overwhelming favorite at WagerWeb.com (-125), as she should be.

Ochoa won the Safeway International title last week by seven shots for her second victory in two starts this year.

Perhaps Annika Sorenstam (+500) can break Ochoa’s hold on the LPGA tour: Annika won this event in 2001, ‘02 and ‘05.

Last year, Morgan Pressel (+3500) became the youngest major champion in LPGA Tour history, winning at 18 years, 10 months, 9 days. It remains her only title on tour.

March Madness odds: Rose blooms for Memphis


2008 ncca tournament bracket
2008 ncca tournament schedule
NCAA tournament bracket


This NCAA tournament was supposed to be dominated by stellar freshmen. However, the likes of Michael Beasley, O.J. Mayo and Eric Gordon weren’t around after the first weekend.

But two of the Final Four teams are led by diaper dandies, and they will square off Saturday: UCLA with Kevin Love and Memphis with Derrick Rose.

The Tigers are 2-point betting favorites (over/under: 134.5) on WagerWeb.com.

While Love was a first-team All-American and has been on the national radar all season, it’s Rose who has the keys to his ballclub as the point guard. He has stepped up his game in the tournament.

Rose is averaging 20.5 points, six rebounds and six assists, with a 4.8 assist-to-turnover ratio. In two South Regional games in Houston, he shot better than 65 percent from the field, hit 13 of 15 free throws and averaged 24 points, seven assists and five rebounds. And he had just three turnovers in 60 minutes. Not to mention thoroughly outplaying first-team All-American D.J. Augustin of Texas in the Elite Eight.

The Longhorns' 6-0 sophomore shot 4-for-18 and had just two of his 16 points during a 15 12-minute stretch in the second half in which Memphis turned a five-point game into a rout.

"He controls the ball, he controls the game and he controls his team," Augustin says.

Rose, at 6-foot-3, steers the Tigers' unorthodox offense, which is based on its perimeter players being able to drive past their defenders. Rose’s 177 assists this season are a Memphis record.”He's so unselfish. He's a true point guard,' said Memphis junior guard Chris Douglas-Roberts, a first- team All-America selection. 'He wants his teammates involved and wants to be a teammate. He doesn't have the attitude that 'I want to be the guy.'

As evidenced by their 3-for-11 performance from beyond the 3-point line against Texas, which came on the heels of two 4-for-13 outings against Mississippi State and Michigan State, the Tigers are placing less emphasis on perimeter jumpers and more on Rose and Co. getting into the lane during the tournament.

Only twice during the regular season -- Nov. 16 against Connecticut (3 of 13) and Dec. 29 vs. Arizona (4 of 10) -- did the Tigers attempt as few as 13 threes in a game.

Memphis has shot 50 percent from the field or better in four of its past five games while hitting progressively fewer threes each time, mainly due to Rose’s penetration.

UCLA junior point guard Darren Collison, who, like Rose, was named third-team All-America by the Associated Press on Monday, said there may be no harder job in college basketball than to be a freshman taking over the point guard spot on a nationally ranked and veteran team.

"You have so much responsibility at point guard," Collison said. "You can't be selfish at all, so for him to take that team to the Final Four, that's a good accomplishment. He's a great athlete and he has a hard job."

Collison, incidentally, will have the task of guarding Rose on Saturday night.

"He reminds me, honestly, of Jason Kidd," says UCLA coach Ben Howland of Rose. "He has a Jason Kidd-type body. He's 6-3, 6-4, just so strong and physical. He overpowers you. “He defends like Kidd, and he's a much better shooter at the same stage."

NBA odds: Warriors vs. Spurs


The Golden State Warriors have 45 wins, a winning record on the road (20-16) and are fighting for their playoff lives, so you'd think they would have a decent shot at winning in San Antonio tonight, right?

Wrong.

Sure, the Warriors are 2-0 against the Spurs this season. But Golden State has lost a whopping 19 straight games at San Antonio. The last time the Warriors defeated the Spurs on the road was Feb. 14, 1997.

San Antonio has won those 19 by an average of 17.2 points, and Golden State has averaged only 84.5 points in that stretch. Not to mention that San Antonio has won seven games in a row overall this season and is 31-6 at home (including four straight wins there).

No wonder San Antonio is an 8.5-point favorite tonight (over/under: 207) on WagerWeb.com.

The Warriors need this one more than the Spurs, as Golden State is in eighth place in the West, one-half game behind Dallas and one-half game ahead of No. 9 Denver.

"We don't want to count on anybody else," forward Matt Barnes said. "I think if we take care of our business and win the games we're supposed to win, we'll get in. We don't want it to come down to someone else get us in the playoffs."

The Spurs are tied for first place in the West with New Orleans, but the top six teams are separated by just a few games.

San Antonio, as usual, is clicking at the right time. For example, after a long dry spell, swingman Michael Finley is rolling. Finley had a rough 10-game stretch in March, averaging just five points on woeful 19-of-66 field goal shooting. However, the 15-year veteran has found the mark again, averaging nearly 20 points on 31- of-45 shooting in his last four outings."I lost confidence a little bit, but I got it back, "Finley said. "I took it upon myself to step my game up, and that's what I've been doing."

And Tony Parker, last year's NBA Finals MVP, is beginning to look like his old self after battling a heel injury.

All of that was on display in the Spurs' latest victory, a 109-88 thumping of Houston on Sunday those rates as one of the teams most complete of the season (San Antonio shot 53 percent from the field and committed only five turnovers).

I think there is always room for improvement, but we are focused," said Parker, who had 22 points Sunday to match Finley's 22. "Everyone understands we have eight games left, and the real stuff is about to start."

Tonight's game will be very contrasting styles: the Warriors have scored at least 100 points in 37 straight games, while San Antonio is allowing just 86.7 points during its winning streak.

The Spurs could be shorthanded tonight as Brent Barry, who has not played since he re-signed with the Spurs on March 23, won't return to action until the end of the week. And Robert Horry, who has missed five games with a left knee contusion, is still listed as day-to-day.

Betting trends: Over is 9-2 in Warriors' last 11 vs. Southwest Division. ... Warriors are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 vs. Southwest. ... Warriors are 33-40 overall ATS. ... Warriors are 40-31 vs. over/under. ... Warriors are 5-2 ATS in last 7 games on the road. ... Spurs are 34-38-2 ATS overall. ... Spurs are 31-43 vs. over/under. ... San Antonio is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 home games vs. Golden State.

The last word: This is probably the one team Golden State wouldn't want to see in the playoffs. I don't expect a Warriors win tonight ... but they should cover the number.

MLB odds: Blue Jays vs. Yankees


Rain on Monday postponed the New York Yankees' first season without manager Joe Torre since 1995 and the final Opening Day at Yankee Stadium.

However, the weather is expected to cooperate on Tuesday night in the Bronx, when the Yankees and Blue Jays will participate in the 84th all-time opener at Yankee Stadium.

The originally scheduled starting pitchers both will take the hill Tuesday, as New York righthander Chien-Ming Wang will face Toronto ace Roy Halladay, who is making his sixth consecutive Opening Day start, tying him with Houston's Roy Oswalt for the lead among active players.

Halladay, who missed time because of an appendectomy last year, was 16-7 last season with a 3.71 ERA in 31 starts. In 26 games, 24 of which have been starts, against the Yankees, Halladay is 10-4 with a 2.99 ERA. He is 4-0 with a 1.77 ERA in his last eight starts against New York, which hasn't beaten him since Sept. 21, 2004.

Despite Halladay's past success against New York, Toronto is a +145 money line underdog (over/under: 9 runs) at WagerWeb.com for tonight's game.

The Blue Jays have high expectations this season despite finishing below .500 on the road each of the past four years and not reaching the playoffs since 1993.

Thirteen Blue Jays, however, combined to miss 951 games last season, giving the club virtually no chance to catch the Red Sox and the Yankees.

"We feel like we had a good club the last two years and, with the injury factor, obviously we couldn't do certain things we wanted to do," general manager J.P. Ricciardi said.It's already been a difficult spring for the Blue Jays in terms of injuries. Reliever Casey Janssen was lost for the season due to a torn labrum, new third baseman Scott Rolen is out for at least a month with a broken finger, and closer B.J. Ryan is struggling to recover from Tommy John surgery on his left elbow last April.

Monday's rain did give outfielder Matt Stairs more time to rest an ailing left hip that had club officials contemplating putting the 40-year-old on the disabled list to start the season. Stairs will not start Tuesday, but will be available to serve as a pinch-hitter.

If spring stats are any indication, look for a quick start to the season by Blue Jays 2B Aaron Hill, who finished the spring with a .447 batting average and home runs in each of his last two games.

The Yankees, meanwhile also start their ace in Wang, who was 19-7 last season with a 3.70 ERA. Wang, though, was horrendous in the playoffs, as he gave up 12 runs and 14 hits in 5 2/3 innings in losing both of his starts to the Indians. Wang is 3-2 lifetime against the Jays with a 4.20 ERA in seven starts, including 0-2 with a 6.35 ERA in three starts last year.

New York's second baseman also was stellar during Grapefruit League play as Robinson Cano finished second among Grapefruit hitters this spring with a .446 batting average and his 19 RBIs, tying him for second among all major leaguers. Meanwhile, catcher Jorge Posada struggled, hitting just .227.

For new Yankees manager Joe Girardi, managing the final Yankees team at the Stadium is a big thrill.

"I don't think you ever know how you're going to react," he said about the final Opening Day. "I think I reacted a lot different when I walked out for the first time at Yankee Stadium than I thought I would. I think I was like, 'Wow, this is really awesome.' As a Midwestern boy, not growing up in that area, you didn't really understand the greatness of it until you walk in there."

Betting trends: Over is 7-1-1 in Toronto's last 9 games on grass. ... Over is 7-3 in Jays' last 10 overall. ... Over is 8-2-1 in Yankees' last 11 home games. ... NY is 41-17 in its last 58 home games. ... NYY is 15-7 in its last 22 games on grass.

The last word: The Yankees have won 10 straight and 15 of their last 16 home openers, won 10 of their 18 matchups with the Jays last season, and are 32-22 against them since the start of the 2005 campaign. Still, I'll take Halladay over Wang any day.